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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 12 June 19
IMO 2020 - COUNTDOWN TO 1 JANUARY 2020 -HOW WILL THE CHANGES AFFECT REFINING AND SHIPPING? - WOOD MACKENZIE
We know that the IMO’s regulations represent the biggest step change the shipping industry has ever seen and the implications will be felt th ...
Wednesday, 12 June 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
This year’s tanker S&P activity keeps edging higher compared to the same period in 2018. Year to date we have seen some 143 ships, rangin ...
Tuesday, 11 June 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SET AT $81.48 PER TON IN JUNE, DOWN 15.66 PERCENT YEAR-ON-YEAR
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 10 June 19
CONSECUTIVE OWNERS OF CARGO: WHO HOLDS TITLE AND THE RIGHT TO SUE? - COLIN BIGGERS & PAISLEY
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In Tritton Resources Pty Ltd v Ever Rock Navigation S.A. [2019] FCA 276, the Federal Court considered the application of ...
Monday, 10 June 19
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 1,305,000 MT OF MIN 5600 KCAL/KG NCV COAL FOR SEPT 2019 TO DEC 2021
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 435,000 MT (per year) of max 5,600 kcal/kg N ...
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Planning Commission, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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