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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 18 June 19
TANKER SHIPPING: WHILE WE WAIT FOR 2020 TO KICK IN, IT'S ALL ABOUT POLITICS - BIMCO
Demand drivers and freight rates
Iran, Libya and Venezuela face export limitations because of sanctions and internal political troubles. At the s ...
Saturday, 15 June 19
SUPRAMAX: A 58,000-TONNER, OPEN QINGDAO, WAS BOOKED TO REDELIVER IN EAST COAST INDIA AT $6,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market closed on a quiet Friday last week after a few hectic days of mid-week trading. Trade routes from Brazil to the Far East we ...
Friday, 14 June 19
PANAMAX: OUTLOOK IS MIXED - FERNLEYS
Capesize
Sentiment changed to a more nervous tone as pacific cargo volumes failed to deliver as expected, however latest activity indicates res ...
Friday, 14 June 19
ELECTRONIC (PAPERLESS) TRADING - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Electronic Shipping Solutions: Bolero International Ltd, E-Title Authority Pte Ltd, Global Share S.A. (edoxOnline platfor ...
Wednesday, 12 June 19
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 140,000 MT OF 4,600 NCV COAL FOR SEP. 2019 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 140,000 MT of minimum 4,600 kcal/kg NCV coal ...
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Planning Commission, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The University of Queensland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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