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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 03 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The global shipping industry is facing numerous challenges at a time when geopolitical turmoil has escalated in view of the recent tension in the M ...
Monday, 01 July 19
COAL DEMAND RISES, BUT REMAINS BELOW PEAK LEVELS - FORBES
This article is the third in a series on BP’s recently-released Statistical Review of World Energy 2019. The Review provides a comprehensive ...
Saturday, 29 June 19
ULTRAMAX: FROM SOUTHEAST ASIA MORE COAL WAS ENTERING THE MARKET - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market showed variability over the past week, as most routes were active yet sentiment differed from region to region. The Pacific ...
Wednesday, 26 June 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the first half of the year is almost over, it is worth looking back at the sale and purchase activity during these months, focusing on the segme ...
Tuesday, 25 June 19
THERMAL COAL FUTURES ON THE ZHENGSHOU EXCHANGE ROSE - DANIEL HYNES
Coal markets were buoyed by ongoing supply side issues.
According to Daniel Hynes, Senior Commodity Strategist of ANZ, the the ...
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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