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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 24 July 19
COAL'S DEMISE QUICKENS IN EUROPE AS MARKET SHIFT IDLES PLANTS - BLOOMBERG
Commodity markets are stripping away the case for coal in Europe, moving quicker than government efforts to close the most polluting power plants.
...
Monday, 22 July 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA SAW INCREASED ACTIVITY AND STRONGER NUMBERS BEING CONCLUDED; INDONESIAN ROUNDS REMAINED FIRM - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Another week of gains as the Atlantic basin continues to be pressurised on tonnage and Brazilian cargoes keep up a steady flow. The Ca ...
Thursday, 18 July 19
WORLD TRADE IN HARD COAL ROSE BY 4.7% IN 2018 - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
World Trade in Hard Coal Rose by 4.7% in 2018
Hard Coal Can Prevent Stress in the Electric Power System in Germany
• Sharp decl ...
Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the res ...
Tuesday, 16 July 19
KING COAL RULES IN JAPAN AS POWER UTILITIES IN THRALL TO LOW-COST FUEL - REUTERS
Japanese utilities will rely on the return of coal-fired power plants from maintenance to meet peak electricity demand this summer, highlighting th ...
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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