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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 11 August 19
ULTRAMAX: A 58,000DWT VESSEL OPEN KEMAMAN FIXED FOR TWO TO THREE LADEN LEGS, REDELIVERY SINGAPORE-JAPAN, AT $12,250 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
With typhoon Lekima gathering pace, numerous China ports were closed by the end of the week and will likely be for two to three days. ...
Tuesday, 06 August 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
On the 12th of May four tankers were attacked near the coast of Fujairah. The tankers hit were waiving international flags such as that of No ...
Monday, 05 August 19
SUPRAMAX: COAL FROM INDONESIA TO CHINA PAID AT MID $8,000S ON A 57,000-TONNER DELIVERY SOUTH CHINA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Having hit a high of $32,963 early last week, the Capesize 5TC now stands at $25,749. This is over 20% of its value lost in 10 days. C ...
Thursday, 01 August 19
PANAMAX: THE SENTIMENT IN THE MARKET IS STILL POSITIVE FOR THE LONGER TERM - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Two weeks ago the 5TC index was at 33,000 USD pd. Since then it has fallen off a bit and has stayed around 27,000 USD pd the last week ...
Thursday, 01 August 19
INDIKA ENERGY REVENUES DECLINE DUE TO LOW COAL PRICES
One of the largest Indonesian integrated energy companies PT Indika Energy Tbk posted revenues of US $ 1,380.4 million, down 4.6% compared to US $ ...
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Planning Commission, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Coal Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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