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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 09 September 19
ULTRAMAX: ASIA A 58,000-TONNER FIXED DELIVERY FUZHOU, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, AT $12,800
Capesize
0px The market reached new heights this week as the 5TC topped $38,014, a level not seen in the sector since 2013. Fridays 5TC closed ...
Wednesday, 04 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
For yet another time, the market seems to have its own drivers. After a very disappointing first half, the recent recovery in the shipping market i ...
Tuesday, 20 August 19
NORDEN HAS BEEN AWARDED A 3-YEAR CONTRACT FOR THE TRANSPORTATION OF COAL FROM INDONESIA TO HONG KONG
NORDEN has been awarded a 3-year contract with a power company in Hong Kong for the transportation of coal from Indonesia to Hong Kong.
...
Tuesday, 20 August 19
THE AUGUST 2019 INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE POSTS THE FIRST MONTHLY GAIN SINCE AUGUST 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
Monday, 19 August 19
INDONESIAN COAL RUNS, A 82,000DWT SHIP WAS FIXED DELIVERY CHINA VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY JAPAN, IN THE MID $16,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market was buoyant in both basins this week, posting gains across the board. After bottoming out the previous week, rates ...
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
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