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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 17 September 19
THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET IS ALREADY ON A DOWNWARD CORRECTION - ALLIED
Here we are again, just a breath before the final quarter of the year. Under typical circumstances and on the basis of what we have seen during the ...
Monday, 16 September 19
COLOMBIAN COAL PRODUCTION TO FALL 5% THIS YEAR, MINING GROUP SAYS - REUTERS
Colombia’s coal production will decline to around 80 million tonnes in 2019, nearly 5% below last year’s, because of low prices and dro ...
Monday, 16 September 19
THE COAL-D SHOULDER? - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Good fortune and the number 13 don’t usually go hand in hand, but when it comes to coal, 2013 actually seems to have been the commodity&rsquo ...
Monday, 16 September 19
SCRUBBERS AND FUEL PROFIT SHARE CLAUSES - CLYDE&CO
From 1 January 2020, Regulation 14 of MARPOL Annex VI provides that the sulphur content in fuel oil used on board ships shall be reduced from a max ...
Monday, 16 September 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITES BIDS FOR MAX 1,290,000 METRIC TONS OF STEAMING COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd has issued an international tender for total 1,290,000 Metric Tons steam coal.
...
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- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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