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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 23 September 19
CHINA RECORDS SLOWER GROWTH IN COAL PRODUCTION - XINHUA
The growth of China’s raw coal production slowed down in August, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed.
Aro ...
Friday, 20 September 19
INDIA TO INVITE BIDS FOR COMMERCIAL COAL MINING IN DECEMBER - MINISTER FOR COAL
India aims to begin the process of holding the first round of commercial coal mining auctions December end, Minister for Coal, Mines and Parliament ...
Friday, 20 September 19
INDIA: ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN IMPACTS COAL IMPORT CARGO IN H1 FY20 - PTI
Economic slowdown has impacted coal import cargo in the first half of this fiscal, as overall cargo growth at major ports registered a marginal gro ...
Wednesday, 18 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
During the first week of September, I had the privilege of attending the Donsö Shipping Meet 2019, in Donsö, a small island of around 1,& ...
Tuesday, 17 September 19
PANAMA SHIP REGISTRY MODERNIZES SHIP REGISTRATION
The Panama Ship Registry has announced it will integrate in a single platform “Electronic Ship Registration System (ESRS)” the present ...
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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