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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 11 October 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER TO IMPORT LCV COAL IN NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 75,000 Metric Tons low calorific v ...
Thursday, 10 October 19
THERMAL COAL IMPORT LIKELY TO CROSS 200 MT IN 2019-20 - TIME OF INDIA
The country's overall thermal coal import is likely to cross the 200-million tonnes (MT) mark in the current financial year, according to Icra. ...
Wednesday, 09 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we have already stated in previous insights, we had expected that the recovery on rates and activity across all segments in the offshore market ...
Thursday, 03 October 19
OIL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS UNCHANGED, NBP GAS PRICE LOWERED - FITCH RATINGS PRIMARY - FITCH RATINGS
Our oil price assumptions are unchanged, despite the recent price volatility following the attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure, Fitch ...
Thursday, 03 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
Edible oil products across the board are showing healthy amount of export activity, however, rates in most cases are struggling to move accordingly ...
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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