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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 15 October 19
INDIA READIES POLICY TO ATTRACT FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN COAL MINING - REUTERS
India expects to have formulated a policy within the next two weeks to attract foreign investment to its coal mining industry, the country's Co ...
Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing ...
Sunday, 13 October 19
INDONESIA: PANAMAX VESSELS OPEN SOUTH CHINA WERE REPORTEDLY FIXED AT $14,000 LEVEL, WITH REDELIVERY BACK IN CHINA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market managed to find a floor and rally a little this week after several weeks of declines. While the West Australia to ...
Friday, 11 October 19
INDIAN MINERS REJECT PLAN TO LINK NATIONAL COAL INDEX TO FOREIGN PRICES - REUTERS
India’s miners are rejecting a government proposal to establish a national coal index that would be linked to international prices, documents ...
Friday, 11 October 19
THE OCTOBER BENCHMARK PRICE OF INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL DECLINES TO LOWEST SINCE OCTOBER 2016
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
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- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The University of Queensland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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