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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 18 October 19
SINGAPORE'S APEX TO LAUNCH LOW-SULFUR FUEL OIL CONTRACT AHEAD OF NEW SHIPPING RULES - REUTERS
Singapore-based Asia Pacific Exchange (APEX) will launch a low-sulfur fuel oil (LSFO) futures contract on Friday aimed at helping shipping and ener ...
Thursday, 17 October 19
INDIA READIES POLICY TO ATTRACT FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN COAL MINING - REUTERS
India expects to have formulated a policy within the next two weeks to attract foreign investment to its coal mining industry, the country’s ...
Wednesday, 16 October 19
INDIA CALLS FOR A RESET OF CLIMATE DEBATE ON COAL AS A FUEL - LIVEMINT
India on Tuesday called for a reset on climate debate on coal as a fuel, in the backdrop of India becoming one of the top renewable energy producer ...
Wednesday, 16 October 19
LESSONS LEARNT FROM CREW INJURED IN HEAVY WEATHER - UK P&I CLUB COMMENTS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Stuart Edmonston, Loss Prevention at UK P&I Club, discusses an incident in which crew were injured whilst on deck in ...
Wednesday, 16 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In perhaps the most interesting market conditions of the past years, the tanker and the dry bulk industry have created a positive sentiment with re ...
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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