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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 24 October 19
AUSTRALIA'S HOPES TO EXPAND COAL EXPORTS IN SOUTH-EAST ASIA 'DELUSIONAL', EXPERTS SAY - THE GUARDIAN
The number of new coal-fired power plants starting construction across south-east Asia has fallen markedly over the past two years as Australia has ...
Thursday, 24 October 19
PANAMAX: NEGATIVE SENTIMENT IN THE MARKET AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The market has continued to slide the last week, as lack of fresh requirements and a slight oversupply of tonnage heading towards Sout ...
Wednesday, 23 October 19
CHINA'S 2019 COAL IMPORTS SET TO RISE MORE THAN 10%: ANALYSTS - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal buyer, is on track to boost imports of the fuel by more than 10% this year, traders and analysts said on Tuesday, ...
Wednesday, 23 October 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Moving closer to the end of the year, we are facing what the market was expecting for quite a while, the ship repair sector booming with the shipya ...
Tuesday, 22 October 19
DRY BULK: DESPITE THE DOWNWARD CORRECTION NOTED OVER THE PAST MONTH, RATES ARE STILL HOLDING OFF AT FAVORABLE LEVELS - ALLIED SHIPPING
Despite the downward correction that has been noted in the dry bulk market over the past month, rates are still holding off at favorable levels. Ev ...
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Planning Commission, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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