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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 13 November 19
INDONESIAN NOVEMBER COAL PRICE REFERENCE LOGS FIRST GAIN SINCE AUGUST
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
Wednesday, 13 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The improvements seen in the dry bulk market during the unexpectedly strong Q3 brought enthusiasm and optimism for a last quarter rally. Indeed as ...
Tuesday, 12 November 19
COAL IMPORTS AT MAJOR PORTS SLIP 18 PC TO 51 MT IN APRIL-OCTOBER - ECONOMIC TIMES
The Indian Ports Association (IPA), which maintains cargo data handled by these 12 ports, in its recent report, said "percentage variation fro ...
Monday, 11 November 19
EMINENT MARITIME ORGANIZATIONS AND INDIVIDUALS WERE HONORED
SHIPTEK 2019 Anchors in Greece for its 12th edition.
Eminent Maritime Organizations and Individuals were honored
Greec ...
Wednesday, 06 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With less than two months before the end of the year, the shipping and refining industries have already taken measures and invested to accommodate ...
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
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