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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 18 November 19
SUPRAMAX: IN THE INDONESIAN COAL BUSINESS, A 58KDWT VESSEL FIXED DELIVERY PHILIPPINES, REDELIVERY INDIA AT CLOSE TO $8,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
For most of the week the rates were nudging up under a flurry of activity in the Pacific as levels for the West Australia to China C5 ...
Saturday, 16 November 19
LIFE AFTER FOSSIL FUELS: THE DAYS OF OIL AND COAL TRANSPORTATION ARE NUMBERED - BALTIC EXCHANGE
With the world fiercely focused on a decarbonised future, fossil fuel movers and traders might rightly be reconsidering their future. But cast a wi ...
Saturday, 16 November 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: PAUSING TO REFLECT - IEA
Global oil demand in 3Q19 increased by 1.1 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y), more than double the 435 kb/d seen in 2Q19. China’s demand increased by ...
Friday, 15 November 19
RISING ENERGY DEMAND IN SOUTHEAST ASIA TO BE MET AND SUPPORTED BY COAL - WORLD COAL
Last week the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its semi-annual Southeast Asia Energy Outlook report which outlines the latest insights in ...
Thursday, 14 November 19
EIA EXPECTS U.S. STEAM COAL EXPORTS TO FACE INCREASING COMPETITION FROM EASTERN EUROPEAN SOURCES
EIA expects total U.S. coal production in 2019 to total 698 million short tons (MMst), an 8% decrease from the 2018 level of 756 MMst. The decline ...
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Planning Commission, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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