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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 04 November 19
COAL INDIA'S OCTOBER PRODUCTION MAY FALL 20% - PTI
Coal India’s production in October is likely to be 19-20 per cent lower at about 40 million tonne, as compared to 49.77 million tonne produce ...
Monday, 04 November 19
PANAMAX: WEAKER SENTIMENTS CONTINUED FROM LAST WEEK, WITH RATES FURTHER SOFTENING IN BOTH BASINS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market meandered slightly upwards this week before giving back much of its gains mid-week. Opening the week at $24,945, t ...
Thursday, 31 October 19
U.S. COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS SCHEDULED TO SHUT - REUTERS
U.S. power companies expect to retire or convert from coal to gas over 13,800 megawatts (MW) of coal-fired plants in 2019 after shutting over 13,30 ...
Thursday, 31 October 19
SE ASIA MAY BECOME NET FOSSIL FUEL IMPORTER IN COMING YEARS - IEA
Southeast Asia is set to become a key driver of world energy trends over the next 20 years as its energy demand grows at twice the global average, ...
Monday, 28 October 19
ULTRAMAX: ASIA RATES REMAINED UNDER PRESSURE WITH THE NORTH LACKING FRESH ENQUIRY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The end of the week brought about a small increase in sentiment heading into a long weekend for some regions. After sustaining a drop ...
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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