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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 21 October 19
SHIPPERS CHANGE COURSE AS FUEL RULES TARGET SULPHUR EMISSIONS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The International Maritime Organization (IMO), the industry’s regulator, will require all ships to reduce the level of sulphur in their engin ...
Monday, 21 October 19
COAL TO PLAY SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN SOUTH AFRICA POWER MIX - MINISTER, REUTERS REPORTED
South Africa’s plans for additional power generation over the next decade will involve a variety of energy sources, with coal still playing a ...
Monday, 21 October 19
ULTRAMAX: IN ASIA, TRIPS FROM THE SINGAPORE AREA WERE PAYING BETWEEN $14,000 AND $16,000, DEPENDING ON THE VESSEL SIZE AND DURATION - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market traded in a relatively stable supported manner in the Pacific this week while the Atlantic experienced weakening turbulence ...
Friday, 18 October 19
WHY CRUDE TANKER RATES JUST FELL (HALFWAY) BACK TO EARTH - FREIGHT WAVES
Panic drove crude-tanker rates up, very briefly, to mind-bogglingly high assessed levels of around $300,000 per day. Now, the fear factor has been ...
Friday, 18 October 19
SHORT TERM STRENGTH FOR OZ COMMODITIES - BALTIC BRIEFING
Volatility in the global commodity markets is not expected to unduly rattle Australia’s commodity outlook through 2020, but the 2021 picture ...
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
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