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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 27 September 19
LOWDOWN ON INCOTERMS 2020 OVERHAUL - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
This ninth revision of Incoterms is changed in style and substance. The revisions improve certain aspects of Incoterms 20 ...
Thursday, 26 September 19
INDIA INCREASES ITS ANNUAL COAL PRODUCTION BY 2.7% PER YEAR FROM 850 MILLION SHORT TONS IN 2018 TO 2 BILLION SHORT TONS BY 2050 - EIA
Worldwide coal production holds steady at about 8 billion short tons, or 160 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu), per year through 2040. Inc ...
Wednesday, 25 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In the past five months there has been significant activity in the asset market with the dry bulk segment being by far the most volatile in terms o ...
Tuesday, 24 September 19
9TH ANNUAL SUPPLY CHAIN INNOVATION SUMMIT 2019 ASIA PACIFIC
Summit: 9th Annual Supply Chain Innovation Summit 2019 Asia Pacific
Host: Ace Events
Website: http: ...
Monday, 23 September 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA IT WAS A SLOW START, BUT DEMAND INCREASED AS THE WEEK WENT ON - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market trended down over this past week, breaking the market out of its upward trending range. While the market traded sideways at ...
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The University of Queensland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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