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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 15 September 19
SUPRAMAX / ULTRAMAX: MORE STEMS WERE NOTICED GOING TO VIETNAM FROM INDONESIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Overall it was a negative week for the Capesize market, with many routes losing ground. A limited amount of time charter appeare ...
Wednesday, 11 September 19
THE INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FELL HEAVILY IN SEPTEMBER
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 11 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
We are going through one of the rare instances where we see optimism building in the dry bulk industry and, as the momentum is still going, the bel ...
Monday, 09 September 19
INDIAN COMPANIES READY TO INVEST IN DEVELOPMENT OF NEW COAL DEPOSITS IN RUSSIA'S YAKUTIA - TASS
Indian metallurgical companies, which received trial batches of coal from Kolmar mining company, are satisfied with the quality of the products and ...
Monday, 09 September 19
COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT DOWN YEAR-ON-YEAR IN 2ND QUARTER - REUTERS
Colombia, the world’s fifth-largest exporter of coal, produced 18.9 million tonnes of the fuel in the second quarter, down 4.5% from the same ...
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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