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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 31 July 19
INDIA'S 2019 THERMAL COAL IMPORTS SEEN AT 180-185 MLN T - WOODMAC
India is expected to import 180-185 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019, said Dale Hazelton, head of thermal coal at consultancy Wood Mackenzie. ...
Wednesday, 31 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It was a fairly busy week in the dry S&P market. Despite the ease of Capesize rates which impacted Panamaxes as well, interest from potential b ...
Sunday, 28 July 19
ULTRAMAX - INDONESIAN COAL CARGOES SAW A 63,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY FOR A SOUTH CHINA TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, AT $11,700 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market was a white knuckled ride this past week as a large downside movement shed value quickly leaving many in bewilderment. The ...
Wednesday, 24 July 19
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.27 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 138.78 points Monday, down 0.27 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Wednesday, 24 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Tonnes of ink has been spent analysing the rebound of the dry bulk market the last weeks with the most representative example being the rising perf ...
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- White Energy Company Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The University of Queensland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Coal Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
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