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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 16 July 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA WAS SPLIT, WITH A BUILD-UP OF TONNAGE AND LACK OF ENQUIRY IN THE NORTH - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was a Brazilian affair with a strong splash of bunkers characterising the Capesize market over the past week. Largely traded in Eur ...
Wednesday, 10 July 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITES BIDS FOR HCV AND LCV COAL FOR AUGUST 2019 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for total 460,000 to 500,000 Metric To ...
Wednesday, 10 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In contrast with the general expectations for the dry bulk market, the sector was not positive or even stable during the past 6 months. The warning ...
Monday, 08 July 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE POSTS BIGGEST MONTHLY LOSS SINCE JANUARY 2017
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 08 July 19
ULTRAMAX: A 52,000-TONNER OPEN CJK FIXED FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA WITH RE-DELIVERY CHINA AT $6,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market surged over the past week, reaching highs not seen since August last year. Widespread activity in both basins saw ...
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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