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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 09 June 19
SUPRAMAX: ASIA LOST GROUND; THE INDIAN OCEAN SAW SLOWER ACTIVITY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market continued in an unusually steady ascent last week. With no major news in the market, each day improved on the last, breakin ...
Friday, 07 June 19
KOEN INVITED BIDS FOR 1.87 MILLION TONS OF COAL FOR JULY - OCTOBER 2019 DELIVERY
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 1,700,000 to 1,870,000 Metric Tons ...
Wednesday, 05 June 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The first semester of 2019 started as a fairly positive semester for the offshore sector whilst there was a recovery on crude prices, as well as a ...
Tuesday, 04 June 19
MARPOL ANNEX VI - SULPHUR CAP 2020 - DEMYSTIFYING THE FONAR - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Fuel Oil Non-Availability Report (FONAR) is primarily a discretionary tool for a Member State to lessen the breach of MAR ...
Monday, 03 June 19
SUPRAMAX: A 61,000 TONNER OPEN NORTH CHINA, FIXING A TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY SOUTHEAST ASIA AT $7,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market continued its steady ascent over the past week to improved levels. The TC average opened the previous week at $12,243 and c ...
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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