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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 16 May 19
SUPRAMAX: INDO/CHINA COAL RV TRADING AROUND US$ 9,000 BSS S.CHINA DELIVERY - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
This volatile segment is trying to find a clear direction from the present US$ 12,000/day earnings for standard units says Fearnleys W ...
Monday, 13 May 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE CONTINUES TO FALL
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Monday, 13 May 19
SUPRAMAX: SOUTHEAST ASIA THE MARKET SAW BETTER DEMAND - BALTIC BRIEFING
Cape
The market continued its rollercoaster ride last week opening with negative sentiment, but turning around in dramatic fashion by the week& ...
Thursday, 09 May 19
DEEP OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST ASIA CONGRESS 2019
Deep Offshore Southeast Asia Congress 2019
Event Date:2-3th July. 2019t
Location: Jakarta, Indonesia
Sarawak Shell Berhad (S ...
Thursday, 09 May 19
OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN CONGRESS 2019
Offshore Caribbean Congress 2019
Event Date: 4-5th July. 2019t
Location: Georgetown, Guyana
Hess announced a new d ...
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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