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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 16 May 19
SUPRAMAX: INDO/CHINA COAL RV TRADING AROUND US$ 9,000 BSS S.CHINA DELIVERY - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
This volatile segment is trying to find a clear direction from the present US$ 12,000/day earnings for standard units says Fearnleys W ...
Monday, 13 May 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE CONTINUES TO FALL
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Monday, 13 May 19
SUPRAMAX: SOUTHEAST ASIA THE MARKET SAW BETTER DEMAND - BALTIC BRIEFING
Cape
The market continued its rollercoaster ride last week opening with negative sentiment, but turning around in dramatic fashion by the week& ...
Thursday, 09 May 19
DEEP OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST ASIA CONGRESS 2019
Deep Offshore Southeast Asia Congress 2019
Event Date:2-3th July. 2019t
Location: Jakarta, Indonesia
Sarawak Shell Berhad (S ...
Thursday, 09 May 19
OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN CONGRESS 2019
Offshore Caribbean Congress 2019
Event Date: 4-5th July. 2019t
Location: Georgetown, Guyana
Hess announced a new d ...
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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