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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 16 May 19
SUPRAMAX: INDO/CHINA COAL RV TRADING AROUND US$ 9,000 BSS S.CHINA DELIVERY - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
This volatile segment is trying to find a clear direction from the present US$ 12,000/day earnings for standard units says Fearnleys W ...
Monday, 13 May 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE CONTINUES TO FALL
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Monday, 13 May 19
SUPRAMAX: SOUTHEAST ASIA THE MARKET SAW BETTER DEMAND - BALTIC BRIEFING
Cape
The market continued its rollercoaster ride last week opening with negative sentiment, but turning around in dramatic fashion by the week& ...
Thursday, 09 May 19
DEEP OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST ASIA CONGRESS 2019
Deep Offshore Southeast Asia Congress 2019
Event Date:2-3th July. 2019t
Location: Jakarta, Indonesia
Sarawak Shell Berhad (S ...
Thursday, 09 May 19
OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN CONGRESS 2019
Offshore Caribbean Congress 2019
Event Date: 4-5th July. 2019t
Location: Georgetown, Guyana
Hess announced a new d ...
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- White Energy Company Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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