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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 24 April 19
PANAMAX: IN THE EAST, THE MARKET MOVED SIDE-WAYS, WITH FEWER COAL CARGOES FROM INDONESIA PUTTING PRESSURE ON RATES - INTERMODAL
Sentiment in the Dry Bulk market slowly but steadily kept improving last week as Capesize rates remained in recovery mode and Panamax earnings also ...
Wednesday, 24 April 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - IS THIS A BANKERS' MARKET? - INTERMODAL
Over the last 10 years, many of the traditional and top lending banks have made the decision to either downsize their portfolios or even exit shipp ...
Monday, 22 April 19
COAL INDIA TO ASK POWER PLANTS TO CUT COAL IMPORTS - DNA
Co to encourage import substitution with domestic supplies at power plants
Surge in coal imports has now forced Coal India Ltd (CIL) ...
Thursday, 18 April 19
BIMCO SEES HARD TIMES AHEAD FOR CAPESIZES
China’s increased use of scrap metal for its production of crude steel is fundamentally critical to the dry bulk shipping industry. Mostly Ca ...
Wednesday, 17 April 19
ONCE AGAIN WE FACED WITH THE SITUATION OF THE DRY BALTIC INDEX BEING BELOW 1,000 POINTS - INTERMODAL
Once again we are faced with the situation of the Dry Baltic Index being below 1,000 points. In a market where the feeling of insecurity is almost ...
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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