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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 24 April 19
PANAMAX: IN THE EAST, THE MARKET MOVED SIDE-WAYS, WITH FEWER COAL CARGOES FROM INDONESIA PUTTING PRESSURE ON RATES - INTERMODAL
Sentiment in the Dry Bulk market slowly but steadily kept improving last week as Capesize rates remained in recovery mode and Panamax earnings also ...
Wednesday, 24 April 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - IS THIS A BANKERS' MARKET? - INTERMODAL
Over the last 10 years, many of the traditional and top lending banks have made the decision to either downsize their portfolios or even exit shipp ...
Monday, 22 April 19
COAL INDIA TO ASK POWER PLANTS TO CUT COAL IMPORTS - DNA
Co to encourage import substitution with domestic supplies at power plants
Surge in coal imports has now forced Coal India Ltd (CIL) ...
Thursday, 18 April 19
BIMCO SEES HARD TIMES AHEAD FOR CAPESIZES
China’s increased use of scrap metal for its production of crude steel is fundamentally critical to the dry bulk shipping industry. Mostly Ca ...
Wednesday, 17 April 19
ONCE AGAIN WE FACED WITH THE SITUATION OF THE DRY BALTIC INDEX BEING BELOW 1,000 POINTS - INTERMODAL
Once again we are faced with the situation of the Dry Baltic Index being below 1,000 points. In a market where the feeling of insecurity is almost ...
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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