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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 12 April 19
U.S : MORE THAN 7 GW OF COAL-FIRED GENERATION IS SCHEDULED TO RETIRE BY THE END OF 2020 - EIA
EIA estimates that U.S. coal production decreased by 19 million short tons (MMst) (2%) in 2018, totaling 756 MMst.
EIA also expects ...
Friday, 12 April 19
GLENCORE WINS $520 MILLION DEAL TO SELL COAL TO MEXICO - REUTERS
Global trader Glencore has won contracts worth around $520 million to supply 4.94 million tonnes of coal to Mexico, state-run power utility the Fed ...
Thursday, 11 April 19
AUSTRALIAN COAL IN THE FRONTLINE OF CHINA'S SUPPLY GLUT - AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL REVIEW
Australian coal will be hardest hit as China cuts foreign imports of its key energy source to tackle oversupply, and implements policies favouring ...
Wednesday, 10 April 19
COALTRANS ASIA - TAKE PART IN THE LARGEST COAL EVENT IN THE WORLD!
Take part in the largest coal event in the world!
Coaltrans Asia is back this June bringing together the entire international coal s ...
Wednesday, 10 April 19
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 160K MT OF MIN. 3700 NCV COAL FOR JUNE LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 160,000 MT of min. 3,800 Kcal/kg ~max.4,100 ...
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The University of Queensland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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