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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 12 April 19
U.S : MORE THAN 7 GW OF COAL-FIRED GENERATION IS SCHEDULED TO RETIRE BY THE END OF 2020 - EIA
EIA estimates that U.S. coal production decreased by 19 million short tons (MMst) (2%) in 2018, totaling 756 MMst.
EIA also expects ...
Friday, 12 April 19
GLENCORE WINS $520 MILLION DEAL TO SELL COAL TO MEXICO - REUTERS
Global trader Glencore has won contracts worth around $520 million to supply 4.94 million tonnes of coal to Mexico, state-run power utility the Fed ...
Thursday, 11 April 19
AUSTRALIAN COAL IN THE FRONTLINE OF CHINA'S SUPPLY GLUT - AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL REVIEW
Australian coal will be hardest hit as China cuts foreign imports of its key energy source to tackle oversupply, and implements policies favouring ...
Wednesday, 10 April 19
COALTRANS ASIA - TAKE PART IN THE LARGEST COAL EVENT IN THE WORLD!
Take part in the largest coal event in the world!
Coaltrans Asia is back this June bringing together the entire international coal s ...
Wednesday, 10 April 19
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 160K MT OF MIN. 3700 NCV COAL FOR JUNE LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 160,000 MT of min. 3,800 Kcal/kg ~max.4,100 ...
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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