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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 08 April 19
SULPHUR 2020 - COUNTDOWN TO THE SWITCHOVER - LLOYD'S REGISTER
Sulphur 2020 (MARPOL Annex VI Reg. 14.1.3) is still dominating headlines and as we draw closer to the 1 January 2020 deadline it’s clear that ...
Monday, 08 April 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE PRICE PLUMMETS TO LOW NOT SEEN SINCE AUGUST 2017
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Sunday, 07 April 19
SHIP PASSAGE PLANS - NO ROOM FOR ERROR! - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The English High Court’s judgment in Alize 1954 v Allianz Elementar Versicherungs AG (The CMA CGM Libra) is an impo ...
Sunday, 07 April 19
IMO 2020: READY OR NOT? - WOOD MACKENZIE
New Year’s Day 2020 is firmly marked in the calendar as the refining and shipping industries prepare for change.
The International Marit ...
Saturday, 06 April 19
AUSTRALIA COAL POSTS BIGGEST WEEKLY DROP IN A DECADE AMID WEAK DEMAND - REUTERS
Australian thermal coal prices this week registered their biggest weekly fall since the financial market turmoil of a decade ago as demand plunged ...
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- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Coal Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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