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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 30 March 19
KOEN INVITES BIDS FOR 450,000 TONS OF (SUB) BITUMINOUS COAL FOR H1 AND JUNE 2019
South Korea state-owned utility KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) issued a tender for total 450,000 MT of min. 4300, 3500 and 5600 NCV ...
Wednesday, 27 March 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Contrary to the December 2018 forecasts but in line with the expectations of the dry bulk market, the first quarter of the year closed negatively. ...
Saturday, 23 March 19
IT WAS A POSITIVE WEEK FOR THE HANDY SIZE MARKET - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The big ships endured heavy losses last week extinguishing any hopes from the recent minor rally. Negative sentiment gained pace throu ...
Friday, 22 March 19
CHINA MARKET: COAL OUT IN THE COLD - BUSINESS RECORDER
Though China maintains there is no ban, China-bound Australian coal shipments are looking for a new home. For the past few months, coal cargoes are ...
Thursday, 21 March 19
PRICE PLUNGE AS CHINESE LEAVE THERMAL COAL OUT IN THE COLD - AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL REVIEW
Thermal coal exporter New Hope Corporation says China’s shipment squeeze on Australia is putting downward pressure on prices in all markets i ...
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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