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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 08 March 19
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 2.6 MILLION TONS OF AUSTRALIAN 5700 NAR COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 520,000 MT of min. 5700 NAR coal of Australian origin to be burnt ...
Friday, 08 March 19
CHINA'S COAL DEMAND FORECAST TO DROP SLOWLY - YONHAP
China’s coal demand is expected to fall at a snail’s pace over the next 20 years due to the country’s preference for the cheap fo ...
Thursday, 07 March 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE PLUNGE TO LOWEST IN SEVEN MONTHS
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 06 March 19
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 80,000 MT OF 3800 NCV COAL FOR 21 - 30 MARCH, 2019 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 80,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV low calor ...
Wednesday, 06 March 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER CO INVITES BIDS FOR 980,000 MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,600 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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