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Wednesday, 15 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS
 Modern warfare - Trade wars & sanctions
As of May 1st, the U.S. has ended waivers to the sanctions that had allowed the top buyers of Iranian oil to continue their imports. China is the world's No1 oil importer and a major buyer of Iranian Oil. The May 1 deadline coincided with the US trade representatives traveling to Beijing and while in April Trump was tweeting that whilst there are still differences, the two sides are closer to a trade deal; the move of eliminating the waivers could be linked to the trade talks and most probably even served as an irritant between Beijing and Washington. Making China's energy imports challenging and subject to U.S. Jurisdiction is not something that can be easily digested and its timing is rather unusual, in one of the supposed final rounds of trade negotiations.
So, right when everybody thought that the trade war might be winding down, the trade frictions have suddenly worsened last week when Trump vented about China renegotiating agreed positions, and announced a 25% tariff on $200b worth of Chinese products. Additionally the US administration said it will impose 25% tariff on all remaining imports from China, $300b, or so.
China has retaliated by announcing that they will increase the tariffs on about $60b in U.S. exports, including hundreds of agricultural, mining, and manufactured products, threatening jobs and profits at companies in and around the United States. The Chinese tariffs of 25% will fall mostly on products that China has a surplus or self-reliance, such as steel, chemicals or textiles while goods that they don't produce will be taxed with 5%.
China depends on the U.S. mostly for high-end products, such as electronics, machinery, precision equipment, aircraft and parts, vehicles and parts, and oil and gas and the Chinese government looks like they have handpicked the goods where the tax will be increased to 25%. One U.S. industry that will be heavily affected is the LNG exports which will face a 25% tariff. LNG shipping firms have also seen their share prices dip. While China, who is already the second largest importer of LNG, will increase their LNG imports by 50% by 2025, the price will be the most decisive factors for the amount and origin of imports. This will only become more important with the startup of the gas pipeline between China and Russia. President Trump knows that and has pushed China to sign deals to import LNG.
The next few weeks will be critical. The worst case - no deal – scenario, or even if coming to an agreement gets anywhere close to 2020, will be a game changer. Tariffs on all trades between US and China plus other administrative actions will lead to a slowdown in investment, rising costs and business uncertainty that will probably lead in a recession in the US and given the weakness in the European economy, Europe would suffer as well with the negative effects spreading across other economies eventually.
On the other hand, negotiations have come a long way. President Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping will attend the G20 meetings in Osaka at the end of June, so there is hope that the two sides will make amends by then. The challenges to a trade deal would probably grow if the two administrations can’t reach an agreement, so most probably things will get worse before they get better.
By Theodore Ntalakos
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 06 March 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
In a downward moving market, softer SnP activity is usually a given, as the gap between Sellers’ and Buyers’ ideas widens, especially w ...
Saturday, 02 March 19
A 60,500-TONNER WAS BOOKED DELIVERY SINGAPORE, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $11,250 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Vale’s ongoing absence from the Brazil spot market continued to have a negative impact on sentiment, with rates falling in all a ...
Thursday, 28 February 19
COAL'S PERFECT STORM HITS $70 BILLION AUSTRALIAN PROJECTS - BLOOMBERG
It’s been a tough few weeks for our coal industry.
First there was a court ruling blocking a new mine on climate change ground ...
Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of ...
Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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