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Tuesday, 07 May 19
UNDOUBTEDLY A VERY TROUBLED YEAR FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET, SAYS ALLIED SHIPPING
 Undoubtedly a very troubled year for the dry bulk market says Allied Shipping in its latest weekly report.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping says, at the end of 2018, we were noting strong levels of optimism and bullish sentiment for the year that lay ahead, especially when given the overall recovery that had been noted in 2018 and 2017, whilst most core index figures finished at relatively good levels. Given these positive trends, for most, 2019 was set to also be a year of general upward momentum, inline somehow with the perceived perception that fundamentals were still improving and there would be more balanced and sustainable dynamics witnessed in the market. Even for those that held a more conservative view as to how things would transpire, few would have called the steepness of the downward correction noted, the increased volatility or the continuous shifts in sentiment that characterize the current market.
After more than 3 months of being stuck in the doldrums, Thomas Chasapis says, with volatility rising for the first quarter of this year by 178% compared to the same time frame back in 2018 (using standard deviation), we finally saw the BDI pass above the 1,000 basis point mark once more (a point last held at the end of January). Even if you consider this recovery to be momentary and driven mainly by the recovery noted in the Capesize segment, it still represents a huge “breather” for the overall dry sector.
Taking this last point, it is interesting to see the BCI trends of late in more detail. The BCI time charter average closed on Friday at US$ 11,182/day, while just a month prior, it had reached its lowest level (since 2016) of 3,460 US$/day, as such placing the recovery gain in the region of 223% in almost 1 month. If this doesn’t sound so impressive, the BCI index made an even more impressive jump, going from a low point of 92 basis points at the very start of April, up to 1,290 points (14 times higher!).
Furthermore, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping noted that, adding a taste of forward sentiment coming through the paper market, a considerable boost was noted not only for FFA contracts for this year, but also for the calendar years of 2020 and 2021. Notwithstanding this, there is still a fair bit of road ahead before we start witnessing any sort of rebalancing in this segment. The turmoil derived from the Vale incident a few months back continues to shake the market, while now, given that most parties involved are now in the process of adapting to the new market realities, we can expect huge levels of volatility and asymmetries for the rest of the year (at least). Moreover, even if we assume an increase in demand for iron ore in the near term and that it will be absorbed completely by the other main exporters (such as Australia), we will still be left with a tremendous gap in tonne-miles which will continue to add an excessive amount of negative pressure on freight rates.
All-in-all, while leaving aside the rather mediocre state being portrayed right now in the dry bulk sector in terms of earnings, the point that troubles most is the overall feeling of uncertainty surrounding the market. Moreover, given a potential 25% levy to be imposed in US imports from China by this Friday as mentioned by President Trump’s tweets on Sunday, it is obvious that we will continue to face random and unpredictable shocks, with tremendous consequences to the overall state of the freight market. With all being said, even under good and strong fundamentals (i.e. balanced supply-demand dynamics), it is very difficult at this point to make any confident assumptions as to what direction the market will take next, even on a short-term basis.
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Friday, 02 November 18
CHINA: COAL CONSUMPTION POSTS STRONG GROWTH ON BACK OF POWER GENERATION DEMAND - CHINA DAILY
China’s energy consumption experienced continuous rebound during the first three quarters in 2018, National Energy Administration announced o ...
Thursday, 01 November 18
IMO 2020 - EXPLORING THE OPTION OF SOX SCRUBBERS - SIDDHARTH MAHAJAN, GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
There are four possible methods of compliance:
1.use VLSFO (very low Sulphur oil) or blends;
2,use dis ...
Wednesday, 31 October 18
INDIA: COAL IMPORTS SURGE ON DOMESTIC SHORT SUPPLY - HINDU
Shortage of thermal coal supply in India has pushed imports up to 85 million tonnes (mt) in the first half of the current fiscal compared to 75 mt ...
Wednesday, 31 October 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - APOSTOLOS ROMPOPOULOS
Since the IMO’s 2020 global cap on sulphur in marine fuels is coming into force, ship-owners have to decide whether they will operate using e ...
Monday, 29 October 18
IMPLEMENTATION OF SULPHUR 2020 LIMIT - CARRIAGE BAN ADOPTED - IMO
An amendment to support consistent implementation of the forthcoming 0.50% limit on sulphur in ships fuel oil was adopted by the International Mari ...
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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