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Tuesday, 07 May 19
UNDOUBTEDLY A VERY TROUBLED YEAR FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET, SAYS ALLIED SHIPPING
 Undoubtedly a very troubled year for the dry bulk market says Allied Shipping in its latest weekly report.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping says, at the end of 2018, we were noting strong levels of optimism and bullish sentiment for the year that lay ahead, especially when given the overall recovery that had been noted in 2018 and 2017, whilst most core index figures finished at relatively good levels. Given these positive trends, for most, 2019 was set to also be a year of general upward momentum, inline somehow with the perceived perception that fundamentals were still improving and there would be more balanced and sustainable dynamics witnessed in the market. Even for those that held a more conservative view as to how things would transpire, few would have called the steepness of the downward correction noted, the increased volatility or the continuous shifts in sentiment that characterize the current market.
After more than 3 months of being stuck in the doldrums, Thomas Chasapis says, with volatility rising for the first quarter of this year by 178% compared to the same time frame back in 2018 (using standard deviation), we finally saw the BDI pass above the 1,000 basis point mark once more (a point last held at the end of January). Even if you consider this recovery to be momentary and driven mainly by the recovery noted in the Capesize segment, it still represents a huge “breather” for the overall dry sector.
Taking this last point, it is interesting to see the BCI trends of late in more detail. The BCI time charter average closed on Friday at US$ 11,182/day, while just a month prior, it had reached its lowest level (since 2016) of 3,460 US$/day, as such placing the recovery gain in the region of 223% in almost 1 month. If this doesn’t sound so impressive, the BCI index made an even more impressive jump, going from a low point of 92 basis points at the very start of April, up to 1,290 points (14 times higher!).
Furthermore, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping noted that, adding a taste of forward sentiment coming through the paper market, a considerable boost was noted not only for FFA contracts for this year, but also for the calendar years of 2020 and 2021. Notwithstanding this, there is still a fair bit of road ahead before we start witnessing any sort of rebalancing in this segment. The turmoil derived from the Vale incident a few months back continues to shake the market, while now, given that most parties involved are now in the process of adapting to the new market realities, we can expect huge levels of volatility and asymmetries for the rest of the year (at least). Moreover, even if we assume an increase in demand for iron ore in the near term and that it will be absorbed completely by the other main exporters (such as Australia), we will still be left with a tremendous gap in tonne-miles which will continue to add an excessive amount of negative pressure on freight rates.
All-in-all, while leaving aside the rather mediocre state being portrayed right now in the dry bulk sector in terms of earnings, the point that troubles most is the overall feeling of uncertainty surrounding the market. Moreover, given a potential 25% levy to be imposed in US imports from China by this Friday as mentioned by President Trump’s tweets on Sunday, it is obvious that we will continue to face random and unpredictable shocks, with tremendous consequences to the overall state of the freight market. With all being said, even under good and strong fundamentals (i.e. balanced supply-demand dynamics), it is very difficult at this point to make any confident assumptions as to what direction the market will take next, even on a short-term basis.
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Monday, 12 November 18
COAL BUSINESS REMAINS PROSPECTIVE - ANTARA
Coal business happened to be sluggish in the 2012-2015 period because coal prices in the world market fell sharply, but it has begun to crawl up si ...
Monday, 12 November 18
INDONESIA'S HBA ENDS DECLINE IN NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 07 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - VASILIS MOIRIS
This has been another active week in the second-hand market for both the dry bulk and tanker sectors. Buying interest has recently increased, which ...
Monday, 05 November 18
TIGHTER FUEL RULES COULD RAISE SHIPOWNERS' COSTS AND CAPEX - FITCH RATINGS
More stringent fuel regulations regarding sulphur content could significantly increase global shipping companies’ operating costs and capex n ...
Friday, 02 November 18
COAL FETCHES 102% PREMIUM IN E-AUCTION, SURPASSING THE EARLIER HIGHEST OF 95% - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal prices have received a premium of 102% in spot e-auction during September 2018, surpassing the earlier highest of 95% premium during the spot ...
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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