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Tuesday, 07 May 19
UNDOUBTEDLY A VERY TROUBLED YEAR FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET, SAYS ALLIED SHIPPING
 Undoubtedly a very troubled year for the dry bulk market says Allied Shipping in its latest weekly report.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping says, at the end of 2018, we were noting strong levels of optimism and bullish sentiment for the year that lay ahead, especially when given the overall recovery that had been noted in 2018 and 2017, whilst most core index figures finished at relatively good levels. Given these positive trends, for most, 2019 was set to also be a year of general upward momentum, inline somehow with the perceived perception that fundamentals were still improving and there would be more balanced and sustainable dynamics witnessed in the market. Even for those that held a more conservative view as to how things would transpire, few would have called the steepness of the downward correction noted, the increased volatility or the continuous shifts in sentiment that characterize the current market.
After more than 3 months of being stuck in the doldrums, Thomas Chasapis says, with volatility rising for the first quarter of this year by 178% compared to the same time frame back in 2018 (using standard deviation), we finally saw the BDI pass above the 1,000 basis point mark once more (a point last held at the end of January). Even if you consider this recovery to be momentary and driven mainly by the recovery noted in the Capesize segment, it still represents a huge “breather” for the overall dry sector.
Taking this last point, it is interesting to see the BCI trends of late in more detail. The BCI time charter average closed on Friday at US$ 11,182/day, while just a month prior, it had reached its lowest level (since 2016) of 3,460 US$/day, as such placing the recovery gain in the region of 223% in almost 1 month. If this doesn’t sound so impressive, the BCI index made an even more impressive jump, going from a low point of 92 basis points at the very start of April, up to 1,290 points (14 times higher!).
Furthermore, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping noted that, adding a taste of forward sentiment coming through the paper market, a considerable boost was noted not only for FFA contracts for this year, but also for the calendar years of 2020 and 2021. Notwithstanding this, there is still a fair bit of road ahead before we start witnessing any sort of rebalancing in this segment. The turmoil derived from the Vale incident a few months back continues to shake the market, while now, given that most parties involved are now in the process of adapting to the new market realities, we can expect huge levels of volatility and asymmetries for the rest of the year (at least). Moreover, even if we assume an increase in demand for iron ore in the near term and that it will be absorbed completely by the other main exporters (such as Australia), we will still be left with a tremendous gap in tonne-miles which will continue to add an excessive amount of negative pressure on freight rates.
All-in-all, while leaving aside the rather mediocre state being portrayed right now in the dry bulk sector in terms of earnings, the point that troubles most is the overall feeling of uncertainty surrounding the market. Moreover, given a potential 25% levy to be imposed in US imports from China by this Friday as mentioned by President Trump’s tweets on Sunday, it is obvious that we will continue to face random and unpredictable shocks, with tremendous consequences to the overall state of the freight market. With all being said, even under good and strong fundamentals (i.e. balanced supply-demand dynamics), it is very difficult at this point to make any confident assumptions as to what direction the market will take next, even on a short-term basis.
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Monday, 29 October 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN AREA SAW FALLING RATES, WITH A 61,000DWT FIXING DELIVERY KOHSICHANG TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY INDIA, AT $10,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A market of two halves for most of the week with rates in the Atlantic firming and easing in the East for most of the week, but then, ...
Friday, 26 October 18
SHIP OPERATING COSTS EXPECTED TO RISE IN 2018 AND 2019 - MOORE STEPHENS
Total vessel operating costs in the shipping industry are expected to rise by 2.7% in 2018 and by 3.1% in 2019, according to our latest survey.
...
Friday, 26 October 18
SEVERAL CONTRACTIONS IN GLOBAL STEEL PRODUCTION - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
World Steel Association data released today shows that global crude steel production totaled approximately 151.7 million tons in September. T ...
Thursday, 25 October 18
WHAT DOES THE "IMO 2020" REGULATION REALLY SAY? A QUICK GUIDE - BIMCO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The shipping industry has all eyes firmly fixed on the topic, but what exactly do the “IMO 2020” global sulph ...
Wednesday, 24 October 18
MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
Looking at 2018 SnP activity, it is evident that Greek, Chinese and North European (German and Norwegian) owners are the top buying nationalities, ...
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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