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Tuesday, 07 May 19
UNDOUBTEDLY A VERY TROUBLED YEAR FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET, SAYS ALLIED SHIPPING
 Undoubtedly a very troubled year for the dry bulk market says Allied Shipping in its latest weekly report.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping says, at the end of 2018, we were noting strong levels of optimism and bullish sentiment for the year that lay ahead, especially when given the overall recovery that had been noted in 2018 and 2017, whilst most core index figures finished at relatively good levels. Given these positive trends, for most, 2019 was set to also be a year of general upward momentum, inline somehow with the perceived perception that fundamentals were still improving and there would be more balanced and sustainable dynamics witnessed in the market. Even for those that held a more conservative view as to how things would transpire, few would have called the steepness of the downward correction noted, the increased volatility or the continuous shifts in sentiment that characterize the current market.
After more than 3 months of being stuck in the doldrums, Thomas Chasapis says, with volatility rising for the first quarter of this year by 178% compared to the same time frame back in 2018 (using standard deviation), we finally saw the BDI pass above the 1,000 basis point mark once more (a point last held at the end of January). Even if you consider this recovery to be momentary and driven mainly by the recovery noted in the Capesize segment, it still represents a huge “breather” for the overall dry sector.
Taking this last point, it is interesting to see the BCI trends of late in more detail. The BCI time charter average closed on Friday at US$ 11,182/day, while just a month prior, it had reached its lowest level (since 2016) of 3,460 US$/day, as such placing the recovery gain in the region of 223% in almost 1 month. If this doesn’t sound so impressive, the BCI index made an even more impressive jump, going from a low point of 92 basis points at the very start of April, up to 1,290 points (14 times higher!).
Furthermore, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping noted that, adding a taste of forward sentiment coming through the paper market, a considerable boost was noted not only for FFA contracts for this year, but also for the calendar years of 2020 and 2021. Notwithstanding this, there is still a fair bit of road ahead before we start witnessing any sort of rebalancing in this segment. The turmoil derived from the Vale incident a few months back continues to shake the market, while now, given that most parties involved are now in the process of adapting to the new market realities, we can expect huge levels of volatility and asymmetries for the rest of the year (at least). Moreover, even if we assume an increase in demand for iron ore in the near term and that it will be absorbed completely by the other main exporters (such as Australia), we will still be left with a tremendous gap in tonne-miles which will continue to add an excessive amount of negative pressure on freight rates.
All-in-all, while leaving aside the rather mediocre state being portrayed right now in the dry bulk sector in terms of earnings, the point that troubles most is the overall feeling of uncertainty surrounding the market. Moreover, given a potential 25% levy to be imposed in US imports from China by this Friday as mentioned by President Trump’s tweets on Sunday, it is obvious that we will continue to face random and unpredictable shocks, with tremendous consequences to the overall state of the freight market. With all being said, even under good and strong fundamentals (i.e. balanced supply-demand dynamics), it is very difficult at this point to make any confident assumptions as to what direction the market will take next, even on a short-term basis.
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Wednesday, 24 October 18
CHINESE POWER PLANT STOCKPILES AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 2015 - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
Chinese power plant coal stockpiles have climbed to approximately 83.3 million tons as of the middle of this month, said Jeffrey Landsberg in his e ...
Tuesday, 23 October 18
WILL THE U.S. COAL DECLINE CONTINUE? - FORBES
What’s Trump’s new coal proposal?
Adding to its controversial plan to leverage federal authority to keep retiring baselo ...
Monday, 22 October 18
CONTINUED HIGH LNG PRICES; TRADE WAR IMPACT LIMITED - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects sustained high spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) and contract prices over the next two quarters on limited investment in LNG e ...
Monday, 22 October 18
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
The oil market in the winter season is generally characterized by demand for diesel, particularly in the northern hemisphere, leaving product marke ...
Saturday, 20 October 18
PANAMAX: THE PACIFIC SAW A LARGE VOLUME OF FIXING, WITH INDONESIA AGAIN THE DRIVING FORCE - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to last week after a shaky start, with a Coaltrans taking participants out of the market early on and with rates slippi ...
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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