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Tuesday, 07 May 19
UNDOUBTEDLY A VERY TROUBLED YEAR FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET, SAYS ALLIED SHIPPING
 Undoubtedly a very troubled year for the dry bulk market says Allied Shipping in its latest weekly report.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping says, at the end of 2018, we were noting strong levels of optimism and bullish sentiment for the year that lay ahead, especially when given the overall recovery that had been noted in 2018 and 2017, whilst most core index figures finished at relatively good levels. Given these positive trends, for most, 2019 was set to also be a year of general upward momentum, inline somehow with the perceived perception that fundamentals were still improving and there would be more balanced and sustainable dynamics witnessed in the market. Even for those that held a more conservative view as to how things would transpire, few would have called the steepness of the downward correction noted, the increased volatility or the continuous shifts in sentiment that characterize the current market.
After more than 3 months of being stuck in the doldrums, Thomas Chasapis says, with volatility rising for the first quarter of this year by 178% compared to the same time frame back in 2018 (using standard deviation), we finally saw the BDI pass above the 1,000 basis point mark once more (a point last held at the end of January). Even if you consider this recovery to be momentary and driven mainly by the recovery noted in the Capesize segment, it still represents a huge “breather” for the overall dry sector.
Taking this last point, it is interesting to see the BCI trends of late in more detail. The BCI time charter average closed on Friday at US$ 11,182/day, while just a month prior, it had reached its lowest level (since 2016) of 3,460 US$/day, as such placing the recovery gain in the region of 223% in almost 1 month. If this doesn’t sound so impressive, the BCI index made an even more impressive jump, going from a low point of 92 basis points at the very start of April, up to 1,290 points (14 times higher!).
Furthermore, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping noted that, adding a taste of forward sentiment coming through the paper market, a considerable boost was noted not only for FFA contracts for this year, but also for the calendar years of 2020 and 2021. Notwithstanding this, there is still a fair bit of road ahead before we start witnessing any sort of rebalancing in this segment. The turmoil derived from the Vale incident a few months back continues to shake the market, while now, given that most parties involved are now in the process of adapting to the new market realities, we can expect huge levels of volatility and asymmetries for the rest of the year (at least). Moreover, even if we assume an increase in demand for iron ore in the near term and that it will be absorbed completely by the other main exporters (such as Australia), we will still be left with a tremendous gap in tonne-miles which will continue to add an excessive amount of negative pressure on freight rates.
All-in-all, while leaving aside the rather mediocre state being portrayed right now in the dry bulk sector in terms of earnings, the point that troubles most is the overall feeling of uncertainty surrounding the market. Moreover, given a potential 25% levy to be imposed in US imports from China by this Friday as mentioned by President Trump’s tweets on Sunday, it is obvious that we will continue to face random and unpredictable shocks, with tremendous consequences to the overall state of the freight market. With all being said, even under good and strong fundamentals (i.e. balanced supply-demand dynamics), it is very difficult at this point to make any confident assumptions as to what direction the market will take next, even on a short-term basis.
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Wednesday, 21 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - DIMITRIS KOURTESIS
Halfway through the fourth and last quarter of the year, we spot a significant change in freight rates for tankers trading dirty, as well as on the ...
Tuesday, 20 November 18
FREIGHT RATES IN THE CRUDE OIL MARKET HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS - YIANNIS VAMVAKAS
Current geopolitical developments between Iran and the US, which have led the latter to re-impose its sanctions, have significantly affected oil pr ...
Tuesday, 20 November 18
GOLDEN ENERGY AND RESOURCES LEADS A$249M BID FOR AUSTRALIA-LISTED STANMORE COAL - THE STRAITS TIMES
Singapore-listed Golden Energy and Resources (GEAR) is leading deals worth up to A$249 million (S$250 million) to acquire Australia-listed Stanmore ...
Monday, 19 November 18
INDONESIA'S LEADING EIGHT COAL MINER'S COAL MINING CONTRACTS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPIRE BETWEEN YEAR 2019 - 2025
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) said, eight Coal Contract of Works (CCoW) will expected to expire between 2019 to 2026, Liputan ...
Monday, 19 November 18
SUPRAMAX: THE BSI CONTINUED TO FALL LAST WEEK, ESPECIALLY THE ASIAN ROUTES - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
After a cut throat couple of weeks, the market finally appeared to have found a floor and rates ticked up. Those analysts that predict ...
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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