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Tuesday, 07 May 19
UNDOUBTEDLY A VERY TROUBLED YEAR FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET, SAYS ALLIED SHIPPING
 Undoubtedly a very troubled year for the dry bulk market says Allied Shipping in its latest weekly report.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping says, at the end of 2018, we were noting strong levels of optimism and bullish sentiment for the year that lay ahead, especially when given the overall recovery that had been noted in 2018 and 2017, whilst most core index figures finished at relatively good levels. Given these positive trends, for most, 2019 was set to also be a year of general upward momentum, inline somehow with the perceived perception that fundamentals were still improving and there would be more balanced and sustainable dynamics witnessed in the market. Even for those that held a more conservative view as to how things would transpire, few would have called the steepness of the downward correction noted, the increased volatility or the continuous shifts in sentiment that characterize the current market.
After more than 3 months of being stuck in the doldrums, Thomas Chasapis says, with volatility rising for the first quarter of this year by 178% compared to the same time frame back in 2018 (using standard deviation), we finally saw the BDI pass above the 1,000 basis point mark once more (a point last held at the end of January). Even if you consider this recovery to be momentary and driven mainly by the recovery noted in the Capesize segment, it still represents a huge “breather” for the overall dry sector.
Taking this last point, it is interesting to see the BCI trends of late in more detail. The BCI time charter average closed on Friday at US$ 11,182/day, while just a month prior, it had reached its lowest level (since 2016) of 3,460 US$/day, as such placing the recovery gain in the region of 223% in almost 1 month. If this doesn’t sound so impressive, the BCI index made an even more impressive jump, going from a low point of 92 basis points at the very start of April, up to 1,290 points (14 times higher!).
Furthermore, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping noted that, adding a taste of forward sentiment coming through the paper market, a considerable boost was noted not only for FFA contracts for this year, but also for the calendar years of 2020 and 2021. Notwithstanding this, there is still a fair bit of road ahead before we start witnessing any sort of rebalancing in this segment. The turmoil derived from the Vale incident a few months back continues to shake the market, while now, given that most parties involved are now in the process of adapting to the new market realities, we can expect huge levels of volatility and asymmetries for the rest of the year (at least). Moreover, even if we assume an increase in demand for iron ore in the near term and that it will be absorbed completely by the other main exporters (such as Australia), we will still be left with a tremendous gap in tonne-miles which will continue to add an excessive amount of negative pressure on freight rates.
All-in-all, while leaving aside the rather mediocre state being portrayed right now in the dry bulk sector in terms of earnings, the point that troubles most is the overall feeling of uncertainty surrounding the market. Moreover, given a potential 25% levy to be imposed in US imports from China by this Friday as mentioned by President Trump’s tweets on Sunday, it is obvious that we will continue to face random and unpredictable shocks, with tremendous consequences to the overall state of the freight market. With all being said, even under good and strong fundamentals (i.e. balanced supply-demand dynamics), it is very difficult at this point to make any confident assumptions as to what direction the market will take next, even on a short-term basis.
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Monday, 26 November 18
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN MARKET STALLED THIS WEEK WITH A BUILD-UP OF TONNAGE - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was a positive end to the week, with West Australia/China making significant gains and firing owners’ resolve. There was talk ...
Friday, 23 November 18
GOLDEN ENERGY'S POTENTIAL ACQUISITION OF STANMORE CREDIT POSITIVE - FITCH RATINGS
Golden Energy and Resources Limited's (GEAR, B+/Positive) potential acquisition of Stanmore Coal will help the company diversify its coal opera ...
Friday, 23 November 18
ASSOCIATION CALLS FOR REVISION OF DMO SCHEME FOR COAL - JP
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) has called on the government to revise the domestic market obligation (DMO) scheme for coal, which re ...
Friday, 23 November 18
INDONESIA'S REVENUES FROM MINERAL AND COAL INCREASE TO US$ 2.858 BILLION - ANTARA
Indonesia`s non-tax state revenues from the mineral and coal sub-sector reached Rp 41.77 trillion (approximately US$ 2.858 Billion) as of Nov 16, 2 ...
Thursday, 22 November 18
SHUT OUT OF CHINA, U.S. COAL EXPORTERS FIND FAVOUR IN INDIA, FOR NOW - REUTERS
U.S. coal exporters have effectively lost a promising market in China since the imposition of tariffs as part of the ongoing trade dispute, but so ...
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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