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Tuesday, 07 May 19
UNDOUBTEDLY A VERY TROUBLED YEAR FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET, SAYS ALLIED SHIPPING
 Undoubtedly a very troubled year for the dry bulk market says Allied Shipping in its latest weekly report.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping says, at the end of 2018, we were noting strong levels of optimism and bullish sentiment for the year that lay ahead, especially when given the overall recovery that had been noted in 2018 and 2017, whilst most core index figures finished at relatively good levels. Given these positive trends, for most, 2019 was set to also be a year of general upward momentum, inline somehow with the perceived perception that fundamentals were still improving and there would be more balanced and sustainable dynamics witnessed in the market. Even for those that held a more conservative view as to how things would transpire, few would have called the steepness of the downward correction noted, the increased volatility or the continuous shifts in sentiment that characterize the current market.
After more than 3 months of being stuck in the doldrums, Thomas Chasapis says, with volatility rising for the first quarter of this year by 178% compared to the same time frame back in 2018 (using standard deviation), we finally saw the BDI pass above the 1,000 basis point mark once more (a point last held at the end of January). Even if you consider this recovery to be momentary and driven mainly by the recovery noted in the Capesize segment, it still represents a huge “breather” for the overall dry sector.
Taking this last point, it is interesting to see the BCI trends of late in more detail. The BCI time charter average closed on Friday at US$ 11,182/day, while just a month prior, it had reached its lowest level (since 2016) of 3,460 US$/day, as such placing the recovery gain in the region of 223% in almost 1 month. If this doesn’t sound so impressive, the BCI index made an even more impressive jump, going from a low point of 92 basis points at the very start of April, up to 1,290 points (14 times higher!).
Furthermore, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping noted that, adding a taste of forward sentiment coming through the paper market, a considerable boost was noted not only for FFA contracts for this year, but also for the calendar years of 2020 and 2021. Notwithstanding this, there is still a fair bit of road ahead before we start witnessing any sort of rebalancing in this segment. The turmoil derived from the Vale incident a few months back continues to shake the market, while now, given that most parties involved are now in the process of adapting to the new market realities, we can expect huge levels of volatility and asymmetries for the rest of the year (at least). Moreover, even if we assume an increase in demand for iron ore in the near term and that it will be absorbed completely by the other main exporters (such as Australia), we will still be left with a tremendous gap in tonne-miles which will continue to add an excessive amount of negative pressure on freight rates.
All-in-all, while leaving aside the rather mediocre state being portrayed right now in the dry bulk sector in terms of earnings, the point that troubles most is the overall feeling of uncertainty surrounding the market. Moreover, given a potential 25% levy to be imposed in US imports from China by this Friday as mentioned by President Trump’s tweets on Sunday, it is obvious that we will continue to face random and unpredictable shocks, with tremendous consequences to the overall state of the freight market. With all being said, even under good and strong fundamentals (i.e. balanced supply-demand dynamics), it is very difficult at this point to make any confident assumptions as to what direction the market will take next, even on a short-term basis.
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Wednesday, 05 December 18
WORLD COAL PRICES FALL, WITH INDONESIA BENCHMARK FOR DECEMBER, ENDING AT LOWEST SINCE JUNE 2018
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 05 December 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
Is the rise in crude carrier rates driven only by seasonality, or is the recent positive reversal signaling the end of challenging days for the mar ...
Monday, 03 December 18
WCA'S ENGAGEMENT AT COP24 IN KATOWICE - WCA
The 24th Conference of the Parties (COP) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) will take place from the 2-14 December 2018 in K ...
Monday, 03 December 18
SUPRAMAX: FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN TO WEST COAST INDIA, AT $11000 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A roller-coaster week for the big ships with hopes soaring at the start for a mini last quarter revival, only to be dashed as the week ...
Sunday, 02 December 18
TRADE WAR LEADING TO HEADWINDS FOR THE FRAGILE DRY BULK RECOVERY - PETER SAND, BIMCO
The first twelve weeks of the 2018/19 marketing year, which started on 1 September 2018, have painted a dire picture for US soya bean exports which ...
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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