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Tuesday, 07 May 19
UNDOUBTEDLY A VERY TROUBLED YEAR FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET, SAYS ALLIED SHIPPING
 Undoubtedly a very troubled year for the dry bulk market says Allied Shipping in its latest weekly report.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping says, at the end of 2018, we were noting strong levels of optimism and bullish sentiment for the year that lay ahead, especially when given the overall recovery that had been noted in 2018 and 2017, whilst most core index figures finished at relatively good levels. Given these positive trends, for most, 2019 was set to also be a year of general upward momentum, inline somehow with the perceived perception that fundamentals were still improving and there would be more balanced and sustainable dynamics witnessed in the market. Even for those that held a more conservative view as to how things would transpire, few would have called the steepness of the downward correction noted, the increased volatility or the continuous shifts in sentiment that characterize the current market.
After more than 3 months of being stuck in the doldrums, Thomas Chasapis says, with volatility rising for the first quarter of this year by 178% compared to the same time frame back in 2018 (using standard deviation), we finally saw the BDI pass above the 1,000 basis point mark once more (a point last held at the end of January). Even if you consider this recovery to be momentary and driven mainly by the recovery noted in the Capesize segment, it still represents a huge “breather” for the overall dry sector.
Taking this last point, it is interesting to see the BCI trends of late in more detail. The BCI time charter average closed on Friday at US$ 11,182/day, while just a month prior, it had reached its lowest level (since 2016) of 3,460 US$/day, as such placing the recovery gain in the region of 223% in almost 1 month. If this doesn’t sound so impressive, the BCI index made an even more impressive jump, going from a low point of 92 basis points at the very start of April, up to 1,290 points (14 times higher!).
Furthermore, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping noted that, adding a taste of forward sentiment coming through the paper market, a considerable boost was noted not only for FFA contracts for this year, but also for the calendar years of 2020 and 2021. Notwithstanding this, there is still a fair bit of road ahead before we start witnessing any sort of rebalancing in this segment. The turmoil derived from the Vale incident a few months back continues to shake the market, while now, given that most parties involved are now in the process of adapting to the new market realities, we can expect huge levels of volatility and asymmetries for the rest of the year (at least). Moreover, even if we assume an increase in demand for iron ore in the near term and that it will be absorbed completely by the other main exporters (such as Australia), we will still be left with a tremendous gap in tonne-miles which will continue to add an excessive amount of negative pressure on freight rates.
All-in-all, while leaving aside the rather mediocre state being portrayed right now in the dry bulk sector in terms of earnings, the point that troubles most is the overall feeling of uncertainty surrounding the market. Moreover, given a potential 25% levy to be imposed in US imports from China by this Friday as mentioned by President Trump’s tweets on Sunday, it is obvious that we will continue to face random and unpredictable shocks, with tremendous consequences to the overall state of the freight market. With all being said, even under good and strong fundamentals (i.e. balanced supply-demand dynamics), it is very difficult at this point to make any confident assumptions as to what direction the market will take next, even on a short-term basis.
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Sunday, 18 November 18
COAL STOCKS IN A THIRD OF NTPC PLANTS CLOSE TO NIL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal supply shortage continues to haunt NTPC, the country’s largest power generator, with latest government data showing 31% of the company&r ...
Thursday, 15 November 18
OIL MARKET REPORT: HEEDING THE WARNINGS - IEA
In last month’s Report, we noted that since the middle of the year oil supply had increased sharply, with gains in the Middle East, Russia an ...
Wednesday, 14 November 18
BIMCO ADOPTS 2020 BUNKER CLAUSES
BIMCO has developed two 2020 bunker clauses that deal with general compliance and the transitional period for an early December release.
...
Wednesday, 14 November 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
The shipping industry is going through an interesting period across all markets. Since the end of last year, the Dry Baltic Index has been showing ...
Tuesday, 13 November 18
INDIA: POWER DEMAND UP; COAL STOCKS AT MINES AT A 5-YEAR LOW - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Stocks at Coal India mines plunged to a five-year low of 21 million tonne (mt) in October, as a sudden surge in demand for the fuel from the power ...
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Planning Commission, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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