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Tuesday, 07 May 19
UNDOUBTEDLY A VERY TROUBLED YEAR FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET, SAYS ALLIED SHIPPING
 Undoubtedly a very troubled year for the dry bulk market says Allied Shipping in its latest weekly report.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping says, at the end of 2018, we were noting strong levels of optimism and bullish sentiment for the year that lay ahead, especially when given the overall recovery that had been noted in 2018 and 2017, whilst most core index figures finished at relatively good levels. Given these positive trends, for most, 2019 was set to also be a year of general upward momentum, inline somehow with the perceived perception that fundamentals were still improving and there would be more balanced and sustainable dynamics witnessed in the market. Even for those that held a more conservative view as to how things would transpire, few would have called the steepness of the downward correction noted, the increased volatility or the continuous shifts in sentiment that characterize the current market.
After more than 3 months of being stuck in the doldrums, Thomas Chasapis says, with volatility rising for the first quarter of this year by 178% compared to the same time frame back in 2018 (using standard deviation), we finally saw the BDI pass above the 1,000 basis point mark once more (a point last held at the end of January). Even if you consider this recovery to be momentary and driven mainly by the recovery noted in the Capesize segment, it still represents a huge “breather” for the overall dry sector.
Taking this last point, it is interesting to see the BCI trends of late in more detail. The BCI time charter average closed on Friday at US$ 11,182/day, while just a month prior, it had reached its lowest level (since 2016) of 3,460 US$/day, as such placing the recovery gain in the region of 223% in almost 1 month. If this doesn’t sound so impressive, the BCI index made an even more impressive jump, going from a low point of 92 basis points at the very start of April, up to 1,290 points (14 times higher!).
Furthermore, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping noted that, adding a taste of forward sentiment coming through the paper market, a considerable boost was noted not only for FFA contracts for this year, but also for the calendar years of 2020 and 2021. Notwithstanding this, there is still a fair bit of road ahead before we start witnessing any sort of rebalancing in this segment. The turmoil derived from the Vale incident a few months back continues to shake the market, while now, given that most parties involved are now in the process of adapting to the new market realities, we can expect huge levels of volatility and asymmetries for the rest of the year (at least). Moreover, even if we assume an increase in demand for iron ore in the near term and that it will be absorbed completely by the other main exporters (such as Australia), we will still be left with a tremendous gap in tonne-miles which will continue to add an excessive amount of negative pressure on freight rates.
All-in-all, while leaving aside the rather mediocre state being portrayed right now in the dry bulk sector in terms of earnings, the point that troubles most is the overall feeling of uncertainty surrounding the market. Moreover, given a potential 25% levy to be imposed in US imports from China by this Friday as mentioned by President Trump’s tweets on Sunday, it is obvious that we will continue to face random and unpredictable shocks, with tremendous consequences to the overall state of the freight market. With all being said, even under good and strong fundamentals (i.e. balanced supply-demand dynamics), it is very difficult at this point to make any confident assumptions as to what direction the market will take next, even on a short-term basis.
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Tuesday, 26 February 19
THE RELATIVELY DISAPPOINTING SCENE PORTRAYED IN THE DRY BULK MARKET RIGHT NOW - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
The relatively disappointing scene portrayed in the dry bulk market right now (especially in the Capesize segment) is undoubtedly one of the prevai ...
Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has be ...
Wednesday, 20 February 19
EFFECTIVE NOTICES OF ARBITRATION - AVOIDING WASTED COSTS AND A POTENTIALLY TIME-BARRED CLAIM
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a recent case, The Amity [2017], charterers successfully set aside an arbitration award on the basis that ow ...
Wednesday, 20 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Market experts mostly agree that the recent dry bulk market downtrend was caused by seasonal slowdown amid the Chinese New Year celebrations in com ...
Tuesday, 19 February 19
AUSTRALIA'S COAL FUTURE UNDER THREAT AS MORE CHANGES HIT FOSSIL FUELS GLOBALLY - ABC
Two disparate decisions from opposite corners of the world have sounded warnings for the future of Australia’s coal industry.
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PTC India Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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