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Tuesday, 07 May 19
UNDOUBTEDLY A VERY TROUBLED YEAR FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET, SAYS ALLIED SHIPPING
 Undoubtedly a very troubled year for the dry bulk market says Allied Shipping in its latest weekly report.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping says, at the end of 2018, we were noting strong levels of optimism and bullish sentiment for the year that lay ahead, especially when given the overall recovery that had been noted in 2018 and 2017, whilst most core index figures finished at relatively good levels. Given these positive trends, for most, 2019 was set to also be a year of general upward momentum, inline somehow with the perceived perception that fundamentals were still improving and there would be more balanced and sustainable dynamics witnessed in the market. Even for those that held a more conservative view as to how things would transpire, few would have called the steepness of the downward correction noted, the increased volatility or the continuous shifts in sentiment that characterize the current market.
After more than 3 months of being stuck in the doldrums, Thomas Chasapis says, with volatility rising for the first quarter of this year by 178% compared to the same time frame back in 2018 (using standard deviation), we finally saw the BDI pass above the 1,000 basis point mark once more (a point last held at the end of January). Even if you consider this recovery to be momentary and driven mainly by the recovery noted in the Capesize segment, it still represents a huge “breather” for the overall dry sector.
Taking this last point, it is interesting to see the BCI trends of late in more detail. The BCI time charter average closed on Friday at US$ 11,182/day, while just a month prior, it had reached its lowest level (since 2016) of 3,460 US$/day, as such placing the recovery gain in the region of 223% in almost 1 month. If this doesn’t sound so impressive, the BCI index made an even more impressive jump, going from a low point of 92 basis points at the very start of April, up to 1,290 points (14 times higher!).
Furthermore, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping noted that, adding a taste of forward sentiment coming through the paper market, a considerable boost was noted not only for FFA contracts for this year, but also for the calendar years of 2020 and 2021. Notwithstanding this, there is still a fair bit of road ahead before we start witnessing any sort of rebalancing in this segment. The turmoil derived from the Vale incident a few months back continues to shake the market, while now, given that most parties involved are now in the process of adapting to the new market realities, we can expect huge levels of volatility and asymmetries for the rest of the year (at least). Moreover, even if we assume an increase in demand for iron ore in the near term and that it will be absorbed completely by the other main exporters (such as Australia), we will still be left with a tremendous gap in tonne-miles which will continue to add an excessive amount of negative pressure on freight rates.
All-in-all, while leaving aside the rather mediocre state being portrayed right now in the dry bulk sector in terms of earnings, the point that troubles most is the overall feeling of uncertainty surrounding the market. Moreover, given a potential 25% levy to be imposed in US imports from China by this Friday as mentioned by President Trump’s tweets on Sunday, it is obvious that we will continue to face random and unpredictable shocks, with tremendous consequences to the overall state of the freight market. With all being said, even under good and strong fundamentals (i.e. balanced supply-demand dynamics), it is very difficult at this point to make any confident assumptions as to what direction the market will take next, even on a short-term basis.
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Tuesday, 26 February 19
THE RELATIVELY DISAPPOINTING SCENE PORTRAYED IN THE DRY BULK MARKET RIGHT NOW - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
The relatively disappointing scene portrayed in the dry bulk market right now (especially in the Capesize segment) is undoubtedly one of the prevai ...
Friday, 22 February 19
AUSTRALIAN HIGH CV THERMAL COAL PRICES AT 19-MONTH LOW, BUT NOT FOR LONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
The benchmark Newcastle high energy thermal coal price has fallen from US$100/tonne at the turn of the new year to US$88/tonne. Thermal coal has be ...
Wednesday, 20 February 19
EFFECTIVE NOTICES OF ARBITRATION - AVOIDING WASTED COSTS AND A POTENTIALLY TIME-BARRED CLAIM
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a recent case, The Amity [2017], charterers successfully set aside an arbitration award on the basis that ow ...
Wednesday, 20 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Market experts mostly agree that the recent dry bulk market downtrend was caused by seasonal slowdown amid the Chinese New Year celebrations in com ...
Tuesday, 19 February 19
AUSTRALIA'S COAL FUTURE UNDER THREAT AS MORE CHANGES HIT FOSSIL FUELS GLOBALLY - ABC
Two disparate decisions from opposite corners of the world have sounded warnings for the future of Australia’s coal industry.
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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