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Tuesday, 07 May 19
UNDOUBTEDLY A VERY TROUBLED YEAR FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET, SAYS ALLIED SHIPPING
 Undoubtedly a very troubled year for the dry bulk market says Allied Shipping in its latest weekly report.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping says, at the end of 2018, we were noting strong levels of optimism and bullish sentiment for the year that lay ahead, especially when given the overall recovery that had been noted in 2018 and 2017, whilst most core index figures finished at relatively good levels. Given these positive trends, for most, 2019 was set to also be a year of general upward momentum, inline somehow with the perceived perception that fundamentals were still improving and there would be more balanced and sustainable dynamics witnessed in the market. Even for those that held a more conservative view as to how things would transpire, few would have called the steepness of the downward correction noted, the increased volatility or the continuous shifts in sentiment that characterize the current market.
After more than 3 months of being stuck in the doldrums, Thomas Chasapis says, with volatility rising for the first quarter of this year by 178% compared to the same time frame back in 2018 (using standard deviation), we finally saw the BDI pass above the 1,000 basis point mark once more (a point last held at the end of January). Even if you consider this recovery to be momentary and driven mainly by the recovery noted in the Capesize segment, it still represents a huge “breather” for the overall dry sector.
Taking this last point, it is interesting to see the BCI trends of late in more detail. The BCI time charter average closed on Friday at US$ 11,182/day, while just a month prior, it had reached its lowest level (since 2016) of 3,460 US$/day, as such placing the recovery gain in the region of 223% in almost 1 month. If this doesn’t sound so impressive, the BCI index made an even more impressive jump, going from a low point of 92 basis points at the very start of April, up to 1,290 points (14 times higher!).
Furthermore, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping noted that, adding a taste of forward sentiment coming through the paper market, a considerable boost was noted not only for FFA contracts for this year, but also for the calendar years of 2020 and 2021. Notwithstanding this, there is still a fair bit of road ahead before we start witnessing any sort of rebalancing in this segment. The turmoil derived from the Vale incident a few months back continues to shake the market, while now, given that most parties involved are now in the process of adapting to the new market realities, we can expect huge levels of volatility and asymmetries for the rest of the year (at least). Moreover, even if we assume an increase in demand for iron ore in the near term and that it will be absorbed completely by the other main exporters (such as Australia), we will still be left with a tremendous gap in tonne-miles which will continue to add an excessive amount of negative pressure on freight rates.
All-in-all, while leaving aside the rather mediocre state being portrayed right now in the dry bulk sector in terms of earnings, the point that troubles most is the overall feeling of uncertainty surrounding the market. Moreover, given a potential 25% levy to be imposed in US imports from China by this Friday as mentioned by President Trump’s tweets on Sunday, it is obvious that we will continue to face random and unpredictable shocks, with tremendous consequences to the overall state of the freight market. With all being said, even under good and strong fundamentals (i.e. balanced supply-demand dynamics), it is very difficult at this point to make any confident assumptions as to what direction the market will take next, even on a short-term basis.
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Friday, 08 March 19
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 2.6 MILLION TONS OF AUSTRALIAN 5700 NAR COAL FOR FIVE YEARS
South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 520,000 MT of min. 5700 NAR coal of Australian origin to be burnt ...
Friday, 08 March 19
CHINA'S COAL DEMAND FORECAST TO DROP SLOWLY - YONHAP
China’s coal demand is expected to fall at a snail’s pace over the next 20 years due to the country’s preference for the cheap fo ...
Thursday, 07 March 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE PLUNGE TO LOWEST IN SEVEN MONTHS
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 06 March 19
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 80,000 MT OF 3800 NCV COAL FOR 21 - 30 MARCH, 2019 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 80,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV low calor ...
Wednesday, 06 March 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER CO INVITES BIDS FOR 980,000 MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,600 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
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Showing 1451 to 1455 news of total 6871 |
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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