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Tuesday, 07 May 19
UNDOUBTEDLY A VERY TROUBLED YEAR FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET, SAYS ALLIED SHIPPING
 Undoubtedly a very troubled year for the dry bulk market says Allied Shipping in its latest weekly report.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping says, at the end of 2018, we were noting strong levels of optimism and bullish sentiment for the year that lay ahead, especially when given the overall recovery that had been noted in 2018 and 2017, whilst most core index figures finished at relatively good levels. Given these positive trends, for most, 2019 was set to also be a year of general upward momentum, inline somehow with the perceived perception that fundamentals were still improving and there would be more balanced and sustainable dynamics witnessed in the market. Even for those that held a more conservative view as to how things would transpire, few would have called the steepness of the downward correction noted, the increased volatility or the continuous shifts in sentiment that characterize the current market.
After more than 3 months of being stuck in the doldrums, Thomas Chasapis says, with volatility rising for the first quarter of this year by 178% compared to the same time frame back in 2018 (using standard deviation), we finally saw the BDI pass above the 1,000 basis point mark once more (a point last held at the end of January). Even if you consider this recovery to be momentary and driven mainly by the recovery noted in the Capesize segment, it still represents a huge “breather” for the overall dry sector.
Taking this last point, it is interesting to see the BCI trends of late in more detail. The BCI time charter average closed on Friday at US$ 11,182/day, while just a month prior, it had reached its lowest level (since 2016) of 3,460 US$/day, as such placing the recovery gain in the region of 223% in almost 1 month. If this doesn’t sound so impressive, the BCI index made an even more impressive jump, going from a low point of 92 basis points at the very start of April, up to 1,290 points (14 times higher!).
Furthermore, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping noted that, adding a taste of forward sentiment coming through the paper market, a considerable boost was noted not only for FFA contracts for this year, but also for the calendar years of 2020 and 2021. Notwithstanding this, there is still a fair bit of road ahead before we start witnessing any sort of rebalancing in this segment. The turmoil derived from the Vale incident a few months back continues to shake the market, while now, given that most parties involved are now in the process of adapting to the new market realities, we can expect huge levels of volatility and asymmetries for the rest of the year (at least). Moreover, even if we assume an increase in demand for iron ore in the near term and that it will be absorbed completely by the other main exporters (such as Australia), we will still be left with a tremendous gap in tonne-miles which will continue to add an excessive amount of negative pressure on freight rates.
All-in-all, while leaving aside the rather mediocre state being portrayed right now in the dry bulk sector in terms of earnings, the point that troubles most is the overall feeling of uncertainty surrounding the market. Moreover, given a potential 25% levy to be imposed in US imports from China by this Friday as mentioned by President Trump’s tweets on Sunday, it is obvious that we will continue to face random and unpredictable shocks, with tremendous consequences to the overall state of the freight market. With all being said, even under good and strong fundamentals (i.e. balanced supply-demand dynamics), it is very difficult at this point to make any confident assumptions as to what direction the market will take next, even on a short-term basis.
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Saturday, 30 March 19
KOEN INVITES BIDS FOR 450,000 TONS OF (SUB) BITUMINOUS COAL FOR H1 AND JUNE 2019
South Korea state-owned utility KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) issued a tender for total 450,000 MT of min. 4300, 3500 and 5600 NCV ...
Wednesday, 27 March 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Contrary to the December 2018 forecasts but in line with the expectations of the dry bulk market, the first quarter of the year closed negatively. ...
Saturday, 23 March 19
IT WAS A POSITIVE WEEK FOR THE HANDY SIZE MARKET - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The big ships endured heavy losses last week extinguishing any hopes from the recent minor rally. Negative sentiment gained pace throu ...
Friday, 22 March 19
CHINA MARKET: COAL OUT IN THE COLD - BUSINESS RECORDER
Though China maintains there is no ban, China-bound Australian coal shipments are looking for a new home. For the past few months, coal cargoes are ...
Thursday, 21 March 19
PRICE PLUNGE AS CHINESE LEAVE THERMAL COAL OUT IN THE COLD - AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL REVIEW
Thermal coal exporter New Hope Corporation says China’s shipment squeeze on Australia is putting downward pressure on prices in all markets i ...
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Showing 1441 to 1445 news of total 6871 |
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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