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Tuesday, 07 May 19
UNDOUBTEDLY A VERY TROUBLED YEAR FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET, SAYS ALLIED SHIPPING
 Undoubtedly a very troubled year for the dry bulk market says Allied Shipping in its latest weekly report.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping says, at the end of 2018, we were noting strong levels of optimism and bullish sentiment for the year that lay ahead, especially when given the overall recovery that had been noted in 2018 and 2017, whilst most core index figures finished at relatively good levels. Given these positive trends, for most, 2019 was set to also be a year of general upward momentum, inline somehow with the perceived perception that fundamentals were still improving and there would be more balanced and sustainable dynamics witnessed in the market. Even for those that held a more conservative view as to how things would transpire, few would have called the steepness of the downward correction noted, the increased volatility or the continuous shifts in sentiment that characterize the current market.
After more than 3 months of being stuck in the doldrums, Thomas Chasapis says, with volatility rising for the first quarter of this year by 178% compared to the same time frame back in 2018 (using standard deviation), we finally saw the BDI pass above the 1,000 basis point mark once more (a point last held at the end of January). Even if you consider this recovery to be momentary and driven mainly by the recovery noted in the Capesize segment, it still represents a huge “breather” for the overall dry sector.
Taking this last point, it is interesting to see the BCI trends of late in more detail. The BCI time charter average closed on Friday at US$ 11,182/day, while just a month prior, it had reached its lowest level (since 2016) of 3,460 US$/day, as such placing the recovery gain in the region of 223% in almost 1 month. If this doesn’t sound so impressive, the BCI index made an even more impressive jump, going from a low point of 92 basis points at the very start of April, up to 1,290 points (14 times higher!).
Furthermore, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping noted that, adding a taste of forward sentiment coming through the paper market, a considerable boost was noted not only for FFA contracts for this year, but also for the calendar years of 2020 and 2021. Notwithstanding this, there is still a fair bit of road ahead before we start witnessing any sort of rebalancing in this segment. The turmoil derived from the Vale incident a few months back continues to shake the market, while now, given that most parties involved are now in the process of adapting to the new market realities, we can expect huge levels of volatility and asymmetries for the rest of the year (at least). Moreover, even if we assume an increase in demand for iron ore in the near term and that it will be absorbed completely by the other main exporters (such as Australia), we will still be left with a tremendous gap in tonne-miles which will continue to add an excessive amount of negative pressure on freight rates.
All-in-all, while leaving aside the rather mediocre state being portrayed right now in the dry bulk sector in terms of earnings, the point that troubles most is the overall feeling of uncertainty surrounding the market. Moreover, given a potential 25% levy to be imposed in US imports from China by this Friday as mentioned by President Trump’s tweets on Sunday, it is obvious that we will continue to face random and unpredictable shocks, with tremendous consequences to the overall state of the freight market. With all being said, even under good and strong fundamentals (i.e. balanced supply-demand dynamics), it is very difficult at this point to make any confident assumptions as to what direction the market will take next, even on a short-term basis.
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Saturday, 06 April 19
SUPRAMAX: IT WAS A POOR WEEK OVERALL FOR THE BALTIC SUPRAMAX INDEX, WHICH LOST GROUND - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market over the past week looked to have found a floor on Tuesday with the BCI 5TC at $3460 before firming into the rest ...
Thursday, 04 April 19
OVERSUPPLY STILL MAJOR CHALLENGE WARNS ICS
Speaking in Istanbul, Simon Bennett, Deputy Secretary General of the International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) warned that avoiding overcapacity and ...
Thursday, 04 April 19
GLENCORE, TOHOKU ELECTRIC SET COAL CONTRACT PRICE AT $94.75/T - SOURCE, REUTERS REPORTED
Global miner Glencore and Japan’s Tohoku Electric Power agreed on a price of $94.75 per tonne for supplies of thermal coal from Australia for ...
Monday, 01 April 19
FORCE MAJEURE SUCCESS NOT A SEA CHANGE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
It is difficult to successfully argue that contractual performance has been prevented or delayed by force majeure. This i ...
Monday, 01 April 19
AUSTRALIAN COAL AT RISK FROM CHINA MOVE, WARNS GOVERNMENT REPORT - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
A new government report warns China’s restrictions on coal imports is the number one risk for Australian coal this year and could lead to a s ...
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- Planning Commission, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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