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Tuesday, 07 May 19
UNDOUBTEDLY A VERY TROUBLED YEAR FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET, SAYS ALLIED SHIPPING
 Undoubtedly a very troubled year for the dry bulk market says Allied Shipping in its latest weekly report.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping says, at the end of 2018, we were noting strong levels of optimism and bullish sentiment for the year that lay ahead, especially when given the overall recovery that had been noted in 2018 and 2017, whilst most core index figures finished at relatively good levels. Given these positive trends, for most, 2019 was set to also be a year of general upward momentum, inline somehow with the perceived perception that fundamentals were still improving and there would be more balanced and sustainable dynamics witnessed in the market. Even for those that held a more conservative view as to how things would transpire, few would have called the steepness of the downward correction noted, the increased volatility or the continuous shifts in sentiment that characterize the current market.
After more than 3 months of being stuck in the doldrums, Thomas Chasapis says, with volatility rising for the first quarter of this year by 178% compared to the same time frame back in 2018 (using standard deviation), we finally saw the BDI pass above the 1,000 basis point mark once more (a point last held at the end of January). Even if you consider this recovery to be momentary and driven mainly by the recovery noted in the Capesize segment, it still represents a huge “breather” for the overall dry sector.
Taking this last point, it is interesting to see the BCI trends of late in more detail. The BCI time charter average closed on Friday at US$ 11,182/day, while just a month prior, it had reached its lowest level (since 2016) of 3,460 US$/day, as such placing the recovery gain in the region of 223% in almost 1 month. If this doesn’t sound so impressive, the BCI index made an even more impressive jump, going from a low point of 92 basis points at the very start of April, up to 1,290 points (14 times higher!).
Furthermore, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping noted that, adding a taste of forward sentiment coming through the paper market, a considerable boost was noted not only for FFA contracts for this year, but also for the calendar years of 2020 and 2021. Notwithstanding this, there is still a fair bit of road ahead before we start witnessing any sort of rebalancing in this segment. The turmoil derived from the Vale incident a few months back continues to shake the market, while now, given that most parties involved are now in the process of adapting to the new market realities, we can expect huge levels of volatility and asymmetries for the rest of the year (at least). Moreover, even if we assume an increase in demand for iron ore in the near term and that it will be absorbed completely by the other main exporters (such as Australia), we will still be left with a tremendous gap in tonne-miles which will continue to add an excessive amount of negative pressure on freight rates.
All-in-all, while leaving aside the rather mediocre state being portrayed right now in the dry bulk sector in terms of earnings, the point that troubles most is the overall feeling of uncertainty surrounding the market. Moreover, given a potential 25% levy to be imposed in US imports from China by this Friday as mentioned by President Trump’s tweets on Sunday, it is obvious that we will continue to face random and unpredictable shocks, with tremendous consequences to the overall state of the freight market. With all being said, even under good and strong fundamentals (i.e. balanced supply-demand dynamics), it is very difficult at this point to make any confident assumptions as to what direction the market will take next, even on a short-term basis.
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Wednesday, 06 March 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
In a downward moving market, softer SnP activity is usually a given, as the gap between Sellers’ and Buyers’ ideas widens, especially w ...
Saturday, 02 March 19
A 60,500-TONNER WAS BOOKED DELIVERY SINGAPORE, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $11,250 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Vale’s ongoing absence from the Brazil spot market continued to have a negative impact on sentiment, with rates falling in all a ...
Thursday, 28 February 19
COAL'S PERFECT STORM HITS $70 BILLION AUSTRALIAN PROJECTS - BLOOMBERG
It’s been a tough few weeks for our coal industry.
First there was a court ruling blocking a new mine on climate change ground ...
Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of ...
Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
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Showing 1456 to 1460 news of total 6871 |
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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