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Tuesday, 07 May 19
UNDOUBTEDLY A VERY TROUBLED YEAR FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET, SAYS ALLIED SHIPPING
 Undoubtedly a very troubled year for the dry bulk market says Allied Shipping in its latest weekly report.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping says, at the end of 2018, we were noting strong levels of optimism and bullish sentiment for the year that lay ahead, especially when given the overall recovery that had been noted in 2018 and 2017, whilst most core index figures finished at relatively good levels. Given these positive trends, for most, 2019 was set to also be a year of general upward momentum, inline somehow with the perceived perception that fundamentals were still improving and there would be more balanced and sustainable dynamics witnessed in the market. Even for those that held a more conservative view as to how things would transpire, few would have called the steepness of the downward correction noted, the increased volatility or the continuous shifts in sentiment that characterize the current market.
After more than 3 months of being stuck in the doldrums, Thomas Chasapis says, with volatility rising for the first quarter of this year by 178% compared to the same time frame back in 2018 (using standard deviation), we finally saw the BDI pass above the 1,000 basis point mark once more (a point last held at the end of January). Even if you consider this recovery to be momentary and driven mainly by the recovery noted in the Capesize segment, it still represents a huge “breather” for the overall dry sector.
Taking this last point, it is interesting to see the BCI trends of late in more detail. The BCI time charter average closed on Friday at US$ 11,182/day, while just a month prior, it had reached its lowest level (since 2016) of 3,460 US$/day, as such placing the recovery gain in the region of 223% in almost 1 month. If this doesn’t sound so impressive, the BCI index made an even more impressive jump, going from a low point of 92 basis points at the very start of April, up to 1,290 points (14 times higher!).
Furthermore, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping noted that, adding a taste of forward sentiment coming through the paper market, a considerable boost was noted not only for FFA contracts for this year, but also for the calendar years of 2020 and 2021. Notwithstanding this, there is still a fair bit of road ahead before we start witnessing any sort of rebalancing in this segment. The turmoil derived from the Vale incident a few months back continues to shake the market, while now, given that most parties involved are now in the process of adapting to the new market realities, we can expect huge levels of volatility and asymmetries for the rest of the year (at least). Moreover, even if we assume an increase in demand for iron ore in the near term and that it will be absorbed completely by the other main exporters (such as Australia), we will still be left with a tremendous gap in tonne-miles which will continue to add an excessive amount of negative pressure on freight rates.
All-in-all, while leaving aside the rather mediocre state being portrayed right now in the dry bulk sector in terms of earnings, the point that troubles most is the overall feeling of uncertainty surrounding the market. Moreover, given a potential 25% levy to be imposed in US imports from China by this Friday as mentioned by President Trump’s tweets on Sunday, it is obvious that we will continue to face random and unpredictable shocks, with tremendous consequences to the overall state of the freight market. With all being said, even under good and strong fundamentals (i.e. balanced supply-demand dynamics), it is very difficult at this point to make any confident assumptions as to what direction the market will take next, even on a short-term basis.
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Wednesday, 06 March 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
In a downward moving market, softer SnP activity is usually a given, as the gap between Sellers’ and Buyers’ ideas widens, especially w ...
Saturday, 02 March 19
A 60,500-TONNER WAS BOOKED DELIVERY SINGAPORE, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $11,250 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Vale’s ongoing absence from the Brazil spot market continued to have a negative impact on sentiment, with rates falling in all a ...
Thursday, 28 February 19
COAL'S PERFECT STORM HITS $70 BILLION AUSTRALIAN PROJECTS - BLOOMBERG
It’s been a tough few weeks for our coal industry.
First there was a court ruling blocking a new mine on climate change ground ...
Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of ...
Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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