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Tuesday, 07 May 19
UNDOUBTEDLY A VERY TROUBLED YEAR FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET, SAYS ALLIED SHIPPING
 Undoubtedly a very troubled year for the dry bulk market says Allied Shipping in its latest weekly report.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping says, at the end of 2018, we were noting strong levels of optimism and bullish sentiment for the year that lay ahead, especially when given the overall recovery that had been noted in 2018 and 2017, whilst most core index figures finished at relatively good levels. Given these positive trends, for most, 2019 was set to also be a year of general upward momentum, inline somehow with the perceived perception that fundamentals were still improving and there would be more balanced and sustainable dynamics witnessed in the market. Even for those that held a more conservative view as to how things would transpire, few would have called the steepness of the downward correction noted, the increased volatility or the continuous shifts in sentiment that characterize the current market.
After more than 3 months of being stuck in the doldrums, Thomas Chasapis says, with volatility rising for the first quarter of this year by 178% compared to the same time frame back in 2018 (using standard deviation), we finally saw the BDI pass above the 1,000 basis point mark once more (a point last held at the end of January). Even if you consider this recovery to be momentary and driven mainly by the recovery noted in the Capesize segment, it still represents a huge “breather” for the overall dry sector.
Taking this last point, it is interesting to see the BCI trends of late in more detail. The BCI time charter average closed on Friday at US$ 11,182/day, while just a month prior, it had reached its lowest level (since 2016) of 3,460 US$/day, as such placing the recovery gain in the region of 223% in almost 1 month. If this doesn’t sound so impressive, the BCI index made an even more impressive jump, going from a low point of 92 basis points at the very start of April, up to 1,290 points (14 times higher!).
Furthermore, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping noted that, adding a taste of forward sentiment coming through the paper market, a considerable boost was noted not only for FFA contracts for this year, but also for the calendar years of 2020 and 2021. Notwithstanding this, there is still a fair bit of road ahead before we start witnessing any sort of rebalancing in this segment. The turmoil derived from the Vale incident a few months back continues to shake the market, while now, given that most parties involved are now in the process of adapting to the new market realities, we can expect huge levels of volatility and asymmetries for the rest of the year (at least). Moreover, even if we assume an increase in demand for iron ore in the near term and that it will be absorbed completely by the other main exporters (such as Australia), we will still be left with a tremendous gap in tonne-miles which will continue to add an excessive amount of negative pressure on freight rates.
All-in-all, while leaving aside the rather mediocre state being portrayed right now in the dry bulk sector in terms of earnings, the point that troubles most is the overall feeling of uncertainty surrounding the market. Moreover, given a potential 25% levy to be imposed in US imports from China by this Friday as mentioned by President Trump’s tweets on Sunday, it is obvious that we will continue to face random and unpredictable shocks, with tremendous consequences to the overall state of the freight market. With all being said, even under good and strong fundamentals (i.e. balanced supply-demand dynamics), it is very difficult at this point to make any confident assumptions as to what direction the market will take next, even on a short-term basis.
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Wednesday, 13 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
If there is one word that can describe the current shipping environment then that this word is most probably “volatility.” The sentimen ...
Saturday, 09 February 19
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000-TONNER WAS REPORTED FIXED DELIVERY FOR AN EAST KALIMANTAN TRIP, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $9,250 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Cape
The Vale disaster weighed heavily on the market for big ships, with uncertainty about shipments/future exports leading to a sharp drop in ...
Friday, 08 February 19
LOWER-QUALITY INDONESIA EXPORTS ROSE 39 MT IN 2018 YOY PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED DEMAND FROM CHINA AND INDIA - PEABODY
"Underlying seaborne met and thermal coal conditions remain quite positive and the pace of U.S. coal-fueled power plant retirements is expecte ...
Thursday, 07 February 19
QATAR CAN GAIN FROM DECLINING COAL - THE PENINSULA
With North America and Europe closing down their old coal and nuclear plants, major gas exporters like Qatar can and should gain market share. With ...
Wednesday, 06 February 19
FEBRUARY 2019 INDONESIA'S COAL REFERENCE PRICE FELL 8.83 PERCENT YOY
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Coal Association
- The University of Queensland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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