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Tuesday, 07 May 19
UNDOUBTEDLY A VERY TROUBLED YEAR FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET, SAYS ALLIED SHIPPING
 Undoubtedly a very troubled year for the dry bulk market says Allied Shipping in its latest weekly report.
Thomas Chasapis, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping says, at the end of 2018, we were noting strong levels of optimism and bullish sentiment for the year that lay ahead, especially when given the overall recovery that had been noted in 2018 and 2017, whilst most core index figures finished at relatively good levels. Given these positive trends, for most, 2019 was set to also be a year of general upward momentum, inline somehow with the perceived perception that fundamentals were still improving and there would be more balanced and sustainable dynamics witnessed in the market. Even for those that held a more conservative view as to how things would transpire, few would have called the steepness of the downward correction noted, the increased volatility or the continuous shifts in sentiment that characterize the current market.
After more than 3 months of being stuck in the doldrums, Thomas Chasapis says, with volatility rising for the first quarter of this year by 178% compared to the same time frame back in 2018 (using standard deviation), we finally saw the BDI pass above the 1,000 basis point mark once more (a point last held at the end of January). Even if you consider this recovery to be momentary and driven mainly by the recovery noted in the Capesize segment, it still represents a huge “breather” for the overall dry sector.
Taking this last point, it is interesting to see the BCI trends of late in more detail. The BCI time charter average closed on Friday at US$ 11,182/day, while just a month prior, it had reached its lowest level (since 2016) of 3,460 US$/day, as such placing the recovery gain in the region of 223% in almost 1 month. If this doesn’t sound so impressive, the BCI index made an even more impressive jump, going from a low point of 92 basis points at the very start of April, up to 1,290 points (14 times higher!).
Furthermore, Research Analyst of Allied Shipping noted that, adding a taste of forward sentiment coming through the paper market, a considerable boost was noted not only for FFA contracts for this year, but also for the calendar years of 2020 and 2021. Notwithstanding this, there is still a fair bit of road ahead before we start witnessing any sort of rebalancing in this segment. The turmoil derived from the Vale incident a few months back continues to shake the market, while now, given that most parties involved are now in the process of adapting to the new market realities, we can expect huge levels of volatility and asymmetries for the rest of the year (at least). Moreover, even if we assume an increase in demand for iron ore in the near term and that it will be absorbed completely by the other main exporters (such as Australia), we will still be left with a tremendous gap in tonne-miles which will continue to add an excessive amount of negative pressure on freight rates.
All-in-all, while leaving aside the rather mediocre state being portrayed right now in the dry bulk sector in terms of earnings, the point that troubles most is the overall feeling of uncertainty surrounding the market. Moreover, given a potential 25% levy to be imposed in US imports from China by this Friday as mentioned by President Trump’s tweets on Sunday, it is obvious that we will continue to face random and unpredictable shocks, with tremendous consequences to the overall state of the freight market. With all being said, even under good and strong fundamentals (i.e. balanced supply-demand dynamics), it is very difficult at this point to make any confident assumptions as to what direction the market will take next, even on a short-term basis.
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Wednesday, 06 February 19
THE BDI HAS EASED BACK TO 645 BP, ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE AUGUST 2016 - ALLIED
The dry bulk sector is in the doldrums, with most market participants seemingly left utterly perplexed, and simultaneously, in pursuit of any posit ...
Monday, 04 February 19
COAL STILL IN HIGH DEMAND GLOBALLY
Although the world is switching to renewable energy there is still a big demand for coal around the globe.
This is according to Cany ...
Friday, 01 February 19
ULTRAMAX WAS FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN, FOR TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $7,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Vale dam tragedy sparked a sharp fall in rates across all regions even where tonnage remained tight. The potential loss of product ...
Friday, 01 February 19
SEMBCORP SELECTS NORDEN FOR LONG-TERM INDIAN CONTRACT
NORDEN A/S has signed a 10-year Panamax Contract of Affreightment (COA) with Indian utility firm Sembcorp Energy India Ltd.
From 1 A ...
Tuesday, 29 January 19
HARD COAL BEARS THE BRUNT OF THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF THE COMMISSION GROWTH STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND EMPLOYMENT - VDKI
Press Release: Hard coal bears the brunt of the recommendations of the Commission Growth Structural change and employment.
In its fi ...
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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