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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 27 January 17
U.S WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT RISES FOR THIRD STRAIGHT WEEK
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.8 million short ton ...
Wednesday, 25 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
Remember that old but classic song called “Destination Unknown”? Well that is where the oil market is heading right now. The song made ...
Tuesday, 24 January 17
MARKET UPDATE - ALLIED
This week at the World Economic Forum in the Swiss resort of Davos we had a historic first via the attendance and speech given by China’s pre ...
Monday, 23 January 17
THE PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED $AU 15.279 BILLION WORTH OF 161.399 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN 2016
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU 1,453.1 M ...
Monday, 23 January 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET DID NOT CHANGE MUCH AND WAS ALMOST AT SAME LEVELS AS LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market did not change much and was almost at same levels as last week.
The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships ...
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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