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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 27 January 17
U.S WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT RISES FOR THIRD STRAIGHT WEEK
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.8 million short ton ...
Wednesday, 25 January 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
Remember that old but classic song called “Destination Unknown”? Well that is where the oil market is heading right now. The song made ...
Tuesday, 24 January 17
MARKET UPDATE - ALLIED
This week at the World Economic Forum in the Swiss resort of Davos we had a historic first via the attendance and speech given by China’s pre ...
Monday, 23 January 17
THE PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED $AU 15.279 BILLION WORTH OF 161.399 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN 2016
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU 1,453.1 M ...
Monday, 23 January 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET DID NOT CHANGE MUCH AND WAS ALMOST AT SAME LEVELS AS LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market did not change much and was almost at same levels as last week.
The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships ...
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The University of Queensland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Planning Commission, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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