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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 20 January 17
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ESTIMATED 15.7 MMST; UP 14.1% W/W
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.7 million short ton ...
Thursday, 19 January 17
KOREAN POWER UTILITY BORYEONG POWER TO IMPORT 660K TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR MARCH 2017
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 590,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous coal and 7000 ...
Thursday, 19 January 17
PANAMAX RATES ARE UNDER PRESSURE IN BOTH HEMISPHERES - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
The market remained flat and the week continued at the same pace as last.
According to Fearnleys weekly dry bulk report, still more ...
Wednesday, 18 January 17
TANKER: THE CLEAN PRODUCT MARKET IS STILL NOT GIVING US ANY CLEAR SIGNS OF RECOVERY - GEORGE VASTARDIS
While we are approaching the Chinese New Year, the Clean Product market is still not giving us any clear signs of recovery, especially on The East ...
Monday, 16 January 17
WHY THE SOLUTION TO INDIA'S ENERGY CHALLENGE LIES IN COAL POWER PLANTS - BENJAMIN SPORTON
India’s huge development and energy challenges mean there are economic and development arguments for investing in new coal power plants for t ...
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Planning Commission, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
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