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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 20 January 17
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ESTIMATED 15.7 MMST; UP 14.1% W/W
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.7 million short ton ...
Thursday, 19 January 17
KOREAN POWER UTILITY BORYEONG POWER TO IMPORT 660K TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR MARCH 2017
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 590,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous coal and 7000 ...
Thursday, 19 January 17
PANAMAX RATES ARE UNDER PRESSURE IN BOTH HEMISPHERES - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
The market remained flat and the week continued at the same pace as last.
According to Fearnleys weekly dry bulk report, still more ...
Wednesday, 18 January 17
TANKER: THE CLEAN PRODUCT MARKET IS STILL NOT GIVING US ANY CLEAR SIGNS OF RECOVERY - GEORGE VASTARDIS
While we are approaching the Chinese New Year, the Clean Product market is still not giving us any clear signs of recovery, especially on The East ...
Monday, 16 January 17
WHY THE SOLUTION TO INDIA'S ENERGY CHALLENGE LIES IN COAL POWER PLANTS - BENJAMIN SPORTON
India’s huge development and energy challenges mean there are economic and development arguments for investing in new coal power plants for t ...
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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