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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 03 February 17
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED 3.9% W/W; ROSE 17.7% Y/Y
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.1 million short ton ...
Friday, 03 February 17
US - EXECUTIVE ORDER ON IMMIGRATION AFFECTS VESSEL CREWS - GARD
From 27 January 2017, crew members carrying Iraqi, Syrian, Sudanese, Iranian, Somalian, Libyan or Yemeni passports are temporarily barred from ente ...
Wednesday, 01 February 17
MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
The recent placement of LOIs for 208kdwt Newcastlemax Newbuildings at $38.5m at Private Chinese Yard identifies with the modern history low for dry ...
Tuesday, 31 January 17
A CASE OF NEW YEAR BLUES FOR THE FAR EAST? - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Unlike the typical lull in the market that we note during the period just prior to the Chinese New Year, 2017 has proved to be fairly m ...
Monday, 30 January 17
DUE TO LUNAR YEAR HOLIDAYS, THE FREIGHT MARKET STAYED WEAK
COALspot.com: Due to Lunar year holidays and celebration, the Freight market was down in all segments this past week.
The Baltic Exchange, tra ...
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The University of Queensland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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