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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 03 February 17
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED 3.9% W/W; ROSE 17.7% Y/Y
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.1 million short ton ...
Friday, 03 February 17
US - EXECUTIVE ORDER ON IMMIGRATION AFFECTS VESSEL CREWS - GARD
From 27 January 2017, crew members carrying Iraqi, Syrian, Sudanese, Iranian, Somalian, Libyan or Yemeni passports are temporarily barred from ente ...
Wednesday, 01 February 17
MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
The recent placement of LOIs for 208kdwt Newcastlemax Newbuildings at $38.5m at Private Chinese Yard identifies with the modern history low for dry ...
Tuesday, 31 January 17
A CASE OF NEW YEAR BLUES FOR THE FAR EAST? - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Unlike the typical lull in the market that we note during the period just prior to the Chinese New Year, 2017 has proved to be fairly m ...
Monday, 30 January 17
DUE TO LUNAR YEAR HOLIDAYS, THE FREIGHT MARKET STAYED WEAK
COALspot.com: Due to Lunar year holidays and celebration, the Freight market was down in all segments this past week.
The Baltic Exchange, tra ...
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The University of Queensland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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