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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 08 February 17
MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS MAKRINOS
The challenges the oil market has witnessed since the end of 2014 has resulted in a crisis for the global offshore oil and gas exploration industry ...
Tuesday, 07 February 17
WE ARE STILL RIDING ON A WAVE OF MARKET IMPROVEMENT, WITH THE GLOBAL TRADE OF MOST COMMODITIES STILL SHOWING SIGNS OF IMPROVING GROWTH - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
The end of 2016 came with a rejuvenated sentiment amongst most traders and investors, in part through the sigh of relief that 2016 was finally comi ...
Monday, 06 February 17
AFTER MONTHS OF GAINS, THE INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED MONTHLY COAL BENCHMARK PRICE IS STEADILY DROPPING
COALspot.com: Over the past two months, the HBA of Indonesian thermal coal has dropped around 18.06 percent. It sank to $ 83.32 per ton for Februar ...
Monday, 06 February 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET CONTINUED ITS DOWNFALL IN ALL SEGMENTS
COALspot.com: Due to Lunar year holidays and celebration, the Freight market was declined in all segments week ending 27 January. The fall was cont ...
Friday, 03 February 17
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 1.13 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR Q2' 17
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 1,130,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous coal f ...
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Planning Commission, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
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