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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 08 February 17
MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS MAKRINOS
The challenges the oil market has witnessed since the end of 2014 has resulted in a crisis for the global offshore oil and gas exploration industry ...
Tuesday, 07 February 17
WE ARE STILL RIDING ON A WAVE OF MARKET IMPROVEMENT, WITH THE GLOBAL TRADE OF MOST COMMODITIES STILL SHOWING SIGNS OF IMPROVING GROWTH - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
The end of 2016 came with a rejuvenated sentiment amongst most traders and investors, in part through the sigh of relief that 2016 was finally comi ...
Monday, 06 February 17
AFTER MONTHS OF GAINS, THE INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED MONTHLY COAL BENCHMARK PRICE IS STEADILY DROPPING
COALspot.com: Over the past two months, the HBA of Indonesian thermal coal has dropped around 18.06 percent. It sank to $ 83.32 per ton for Februar ...
Monday, 06 February 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET CONTINUED ITS DOWNFALL IN ALL SEGMENTS
COALspot.com: Due to Lunar year holidays and celebration, the Freight market was declined in all segments week ending 27 January. The fall was cont ...
Friday, 03 February 17
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 1.13 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR Q2' 17
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 1,130,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous coal f ...
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The University of Queensland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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