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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 21 February 17
CHINA SUSPENDS COAL IMPORTS FROM NORTH KOREA FROM 19 FEB
COALspot.com: China is suspended coal imports from North Korea until December 2017. China says it will suspend all imports of coal from North Korea ...
Monday, 20 February 17
OCEAN FREIGHT RATES SLIGHTLY UP WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market was firmed up this past week. The Panamax segment was declined for the week ending 17 February 2017.
The Balt ...
Friday, 17 February 17
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION SLIPS SLIGHTLY WEEK OVER WEEK, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.5 million sh ...
Thursday, 16 February 17
CAPE MARKET HAVE EXPERIENCED A STRONG DOWNTURN - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Market has shifted sides from Atlantic to Pacific, where Atlantic is now lagging behind with little action and sliding indices, notably ...
Thursday, 16 February 17
IF I PLAN TO UNDERTAKE A CHARTERPARTY WITH AN UNFAMILIAR ENTITY, WHAT STEPS CAN I TAKE TO ENSURE THE CHARTERER WILL PAY THEIR HIRE? - SHIPOWNERS' CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Due to the difficult conditions currently existing in the shipping market, particularly in the offshore sector, Members a ...
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Coal Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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