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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 02 March 17
ULTRAMAX: INDONESIA TO INDIA COAL ROUNDS IS BEING FIXED AT AROUND MID 11K BSS SINGAPORE DELIVERY - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Holiday mode within Atlantic i.e. very few movements but rates remained still positive, mostly in the USG region where tight tonnage sup ...
Wednesday, 01 March 17
2017 IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE A GOOD YEAR FOR A NUMBER OF COMMODITIES - LINOS KOGEVINAS
2017 is looking like it will be a good year for a number of commodities. Following the price recovery witnessed in 2016 across a number of commodit ...
Tuesday, 28 February 17
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 17.39% LESS COAL IN JANUARY; TRADE VALUE UP 11.87% M/M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU 1,625.6 M ...
Monday, 27 February 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS FIRMED UP THIS PAST WEEK; BCI ROSE 57.64% W/W
COALspot.com: The Freight market was firmed up this past week.
The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commod ...
Friday, 24 February 17
RUSSIAN OIL AND GAS WITHSTANDS OIL PRICE SHOCK - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings says in a new report that the Russian oil and gas sector has withstood the oil price stock of 1H16. Key events of 2016 include record ...
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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