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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 02 March 17
ULTRAMAX: INDONESIA TO INDIA COAL ROUNDS IS BEING FIXED AT AROUND MID 11K BSS SINGAPORE DELIVERY - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Holiday mode within Atlantic i.e. very few movements but rates remained still positive, mostly in the USG region where tight tonnage sup ...
Wednesday, 01 March 17
2017 IS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE A GOOD YEAR FOR A NUMBER OF COMMODITIES - LINOS KOGEVINAS
2017 is looking like it will be a good year for a number of commodities. Following the price recovery witnessed in 2016 across a number of commodit ...
Tuesday, 28 February 17
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 17.39% LESS COAL IN JANUARY; TRADE VALUE UP 11.87% M/M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU 1,625.6 M ...
Monday, 27 February 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS FIRMED UP THIS PAST WEEK; BCI ROSE 57.64% W/W
COALspot.com: The Freight market was firmed up this past week.
The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commod ...
Friday, 24 February 17
RUSSIAN OIL AND GAS WITHSTANDS OIL PRICE SHOCK - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings says in a new report that the Russian oil and gas sector has withstood the oil price stock of 1H16. Key events of 2016 include record ...
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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