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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 24 February 17
US WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ESTIMATED AT 16.8 MMST - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.8 million short ton ...
Thursday, 23 February 17
ULTRA SUPRAMAX: INDONESIA TO INDIA IS GETTING AROUND $10-11K BASIS SINGAPORE DELIVERY
Supramax
The week started off quietly in the Atlantic with more activity in the Pacific basin.
According to Fearnleys weekly report, frontha ...
Wednesday, 22 February 17
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
In 2016 a session of the IMO committee in London, set the new prerequisites effective from January 2020, which will necessitate global Sulphur cont ...
Tuesday, 21 February 17
INDIA'S JANUARY COAL IMPORTS DECLINE 21.7 PERCENT YEAR -ON-YEAR TO 14.31 MT - PTI
Coal imports declined by 21.7 per cent to 14.31 million tonnes in January as the power utilities did not lift much fuel due to abundant stock avail ...
Tuesday, 21 February 17
CHINESE EXPORTS SHOWED A YEAR-ON-YEAR RISE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN TEN MONTHS; S. KOREA'S EXPORTS UP FOR PAST THREE MONTHS IN A ROW - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
We have started to some sparks of life in the commodities markets these past weeks, with prices having shown a strong push during the past couple o ...
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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