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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 24 February 17
US WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ESTIMATED AT 16.8 MMST - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.8 million short ton ...
Thursday, 23 February 17
ULTRA SUPRAMAX: INDONESIA TO INDIA IS GETTING AROUND $10-11K BASIS SINGAPORE DELIVERY
Supramax
The week started off quietly in the Atlantic with more activity in the Pacific basin.
According to Fearnleys weekly report, frontha ...
Wednesday, 22 February 17
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
In 2016 a session of the IMO committee in London, set the new prerequisites effective from January 2020, which will necessitate global Sulphur cont ...
Tuesday, 21 February 17
INDIA'S JANUARY COAL IMPORTS DECLINE 21.7 PERCENT YEAR -ON-YEAR TO 14.31 MT - PTI
Coal imports declined by 21.7 per cent to 14.31 million tonnes in January as the power utilities did not lift much fuel due to abundant stock avail ...
Tuesday, 21 February 17
CHINESE EXPORTS SHOWED A YEAR-ON-YEAR RISE FOR THE FIRST TIME IN TEN MONTHS; S. KOREA'S EXPORTS UP FOR PAST THREE MONTHS IN A ROW - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
We have started to some sparks of life in the commodities markets these past weeks, with prices having shown a strong push during the past couple o ...
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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